S&P 500 1,194.40 +.24%
DJIA 10,295.27 +.07%
NASDAQ 2,090.16 +.29%
Russell 2000 644.24 +.75%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,927.21 +.30%
S&P Barra Growth 571.89 +.22%
S&P Barra Value 618.25 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 578.93 -.21%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 704.35 +.85%
Morgan Stanley Technology 494.89 +.50%
Transports 3,674.61 +.68%
Utilities 411.88 +.79%
Put/Call .87 -18.69%
NYSE Arms .79 -28.68%
Volatility(VIX) 14.58 -2.54%
ISE Sentiment 149.00 -9.70%
US Dollar 89.09 +.48%
CRB 324.35 +.15%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.25 -.18%
Unleaded Gasoline 180.50 -1.93%
Natural Gas 13.32 -.41%
Heating Oil 194.00 -.55%
Gold 477.30 +.48%
Base Metals 133.61 +.64%
Copper 180.90 +1.46%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.34% -.95%
Leading Sectors %
Steel +2.34%
Gold & Silver +1.77%
Energy +1.73%
Lagging Sectors
Restaurants -.74%
REITs -1.04%
Broadcasting -1.24%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my Retail longs and Medical longs are offsetting losses in my Steel shorts and Energy-related shorts. I have not traded this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, most sectors are rising and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is neutral given the decline in long-term rates and natural gas prices and recent market losses. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 5.98% this week. This is still slightly down from 6.04% on April 1 and only 77 basis points away from record lows set in June 2003. The Homebuilding Index is down 12.3% from its all-time high set July 29. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is falling to 4.34% today, even with the much better-than-expected jobs report. It appears to me that the 10-year will rally from here, at least short-term. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower from current levels into the close as worries over earnings offset lower rates.
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