Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Stocks Mixed Mid-day as Strength in Energy Shares Offsets Weakness in Tech

Indices
S&P 500 1,191.00 +.31%
DJIA 10,306.40 +.66%
NASDAQ 2,073.91 -.24%
Russell 2000 638.04 +.07%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,881.76 +.21%
S&P Barra Growth 571.40 +.34%
S&P Barra Value 614.64 +.13%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 577.74 +.17%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 693.83 +.37%
Morgan Stanley Technology 489.71 -.24%
Transports 3,699.74 +.93%
Utilities 409.20 +.79%
Put/Call 1.11 +9.90%
NYSE Arms 1.06 -33.32%
Volatility(VIX) 15.27 -1.93%
ISE Sentiment 153.00 +17.69%
US Dollar 89.87 +.46%
CRB 329.42 +1.06%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.15 +2.18%
Unleaded Gasoline 181.50 +.80%
Natural Gas 13.38 +3.12%
Heating Oil 200.25 +1.56%
Gold 479.80 +.38%
Base Metals 133.62 +.10%
Copper 183.50 +1.61%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% +.59%

Leading Sectors %
Energy +2.69%
Oil Service +2.05%
Oil Tankers +2.02%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.23%
Telecom -1.40%
Alternative Energy -1.57%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my ETF shorts are offsetting losses in my Energy-related shorts and Semiconductor longs. I added to my IWM and QQQQ shorts and then exited some of them, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is slightly above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is neutral given recent market losses and the bounce in energy prices. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.2% year-over-year last week vs. a 3.2% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 23rd week in a row the index has risen 3% or more. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index has risen about 2% over the last 3 weeks versus a 2% loss for the S&P 500 over the same period. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short-covering.

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