Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Stocks Mixed Mid-day as Energy Prices Fall and Long-term Rates Rise

Indices
S&P 500 1,197.46 +.11%
DJIA 10,398.21 +.20%
NASDAQ 2,107.83 -.08%
Russell 2000 641.32 -.22%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,948.69 +.02%
S&P Barra Growth 574.57 -.02%
S&P Barra Value 619.10 +.26%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.33 +.35%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 708.62 +1.05%
Morgan Stanley Technology 497.54 -.67%
Transports 3,751.08 +.38%
Utilities 396.01 -.35%
Put/Call .91 +3.41%
NYSE Arms .77 -21.83%
Volatility(VIX) 14.24 -2.0%
ISE Sentiment 146.00 -22.34%
US Dollar 89.52 +.31%
CRB 325.47 -1.10%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.65 -1.35%
Unleaded Gasoline 161.25 -2.65%
Natural Gas 14.14 -1.35%
Heating Oil 188.00 -.52%
Gold 473.00 -.36%
Base Metals 133.08 -.46%
Copper 181.80 -.36%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.57% +1.03%

Leading Sectors %
I-Banks +1.29%
Oil Tankers +1.12%
Papers +.98%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.78%
HMOs -2.28%
Gaming -2.69%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs, Medical longs and Computer longs. I added PLAY long this morning and took profits in an existing long, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is slightly above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is neutral considering the rise in long-term rates and fall in energy prices. Trim Tabs is now estimating international funds will take in $87.5 billion this year, the most since they began keeping track in 1985. I continue to believe the mania for international stocks will end badly in the coming months. It will likely coincide with the accelerated downward move in commodity prices that I envision. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on falling energy prices.

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