Friday, November 11, 2005

Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day, Consolidating Recent Gains

Indices
S&P 500 1,233.09 +.17%
DJIA 10,675.00 +.33%
NASDAQ 2,202.57 +.28%
Russell 2000 665.86 +.14%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,316.74 +.17%
S&P Barra Growth 590.41 +.18%
S&P Barra Value 638.26 +.14%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 594.45 +.20%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 743.10 +.53%
Morgan Stanley Technology 515.61 +.16%
Transports 4,059.86 +.39%
Utilities 386.42 -1.21%
Put/Call .73 -2.67%
NYSE Arms .63 -20.88%
Volatility(VIX) 11.84 -.50%
ISE Sentiment 230.00 +47.44%
US Dollar 91.94 -.15%
CRB 315.53 +.32%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.70 -.17%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.00 -1.11%
Natural Gas 11.65 +2.37%
Heating Oil 173.75 -.34%
Gold 469.40 +.36%
Base Metals 139.80 +1.44%
Copper 190.55 +1.82%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% +.76%

Leading Sectors
Steel +2.65%
Coal +2.10%
Airlines +2.03%

Lagging Sectors
Defense -.74%
Tobacco -.92%
Utilities -1.15%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Airline longs and Medical Information System longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is neutral, most sectors are rising and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Overall, market action is neutral. It is my experience that tight, sustained trading ranges result in extreme moves in either direction. We are in the midst of the longest string of 3%+ GDP growth quarters since 1986, yet consumer confidence was recently at the lowest level since the depths of the recession in the early 1990s. Given the U.S. economy's bulletproof disposition, there has been a major disconnect between perception and reality, thanks to fact the that there has never before in U.S. history been so many that perceive they will benefit(both politically and financially) from a U.S. economic collapse. I contend that all the irrational negativity that has built up since the bursting of the bubble five years ago will help propel the major averages higher out of the recent trading range over the intermediate-term.

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