- Preliminary 3Q GDP Price Index rose 3.0% versus estimates of a 3.1% increase and a prior estimate of a 3.1% gain.
- Preliminary 3Q Personal Consumption rose 4.2% versus estimates of a 3.9% gain and a prior estimate of a 3.9% increase.
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for November rose to 61.7 versus estimates of 60.0 and a reading of 62.9 in September.
BOTTOM LINE: The US economy grew at a 4.3% annual rate from July through September, the quickest since the first quarter of last year and evidence of resilience in the face of soaring energy costs related to the hurricanes, Bloomberg reported. As companies gain confidence, inventory rebuilding will continue to spur growth, providing stimulus for an economy that has growth in excess of 3% for 10 straight quarters, the best streak in almost 20 years. The core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose just 1.2% after a 1.7% gain in the second quarter. The economy’s strong performance in spite of the hurricanes is stunning. There is still no evidence of any consumer weakness despite the attempts of many to suggest otherwise. This should help alleviate some of the irrational pessimism that has enveloped many circles.
Manufacturing in the Chicago area expanded more than expected in November, adding to evidence of strength in the economy, Bloomberg reported. The prices paid index jumped to 94.1 from 79.6 in October. The employment component of the index slipped to 50.3 from 51.3 in October. The order backlogs component rose to 62.0, the highest since July 1994. Manufacturing will continue to boost US growth over the intermediate-term as companies rebuild depleted inventories. The jump in the prices paid component is likely an end of hurricane aberration as the CRB Index recently fell through its 200-day moving-average for the first time in almost a year.
No comments:
Post a Comment