Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Profit-taking after Recent Gains

Indices
S&P 500 1,229.40 -.35%
DJIA 10,684.52 -.12%
NASDAQ 2,188.59 -.56%
Russell 2000 657.55 -.96%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,280.85 -.34%
S&P Barra Growth 589.61 -.07%
S&P Barra Value 636.18 -.51%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 591.04 -.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 747.84 -.47%
Morgan Stanley Technology 513.83 -.35%
Transports 4,008.78 -1.24%
Utilities 388.57 +.55%
Put/Call .72 -20.88%
NYSE Arms .83 +6.53%
Volatility(VIX) 12.35 +1.40%
ISE Sentiment 178.00 -3.26%
US Dollar 92.21 +.09%
CRB 312.69 -.78%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.10 -.94%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.10 -2.35%
Natural Gas 11.55 -.49%
Heating Oil 169.00 -2.28%
Gold 469.00 -.02%
Base Metals 139.10 -.66%
Copper 193.00 +.86%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.55% -1.16%

Leading Sectors
Hospitals +1.32%
HMOs +.85%
Utilities +.42%

Lagging Sectors
Retail -2.32%
Oil Tankers -2.37%
Disk Drives -2.67%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Internet longs, Retail longs, Software longs and Medical Information System longs. I added IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are falling and volume is average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Overall, today’s market action is negative considering the fall in long-term rates, the decline in energy prices and positive economic data. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.8% year-over-year this week vs. a 4.2% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 28th week in a row the index has risen 3% or more. This is impressive considering recent depressed consumer sentiment readings and unseasonably warm weather. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower from current levels into the close on profit-taking.

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