Wednesday, November 02, 2005

Stocks Finish Sharply Higher as Irrational Pessimism Recedes

Indices
S&P 500 1,214.76 +1.0%
DJIA 10,472.73 +.63%
NASDAQ 2,144.31 +1.43%
Russell 2000 657.05 +2.18%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,144.03 +1.14%
S&P Barra Growth 579.53 +.91%
S&P Barra Value 631.07 +1.08%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.91 +.21%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 730.15 +1.55%
Morgan Stanley Technology 504.96 +1.21%
Transports 3,928.04 +2.29%
Utilities 393.02 +.64%
Put/Call .68 -29.17%
NYSE Arms .69 -44.09%
Volatility(VIX) 13.48 -9.23%
ISE Sentiment 177.00 +7.27%
US Dollar 89.71 -.01%
CRB 316.45 +.20%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.89 +.23%
Unleaded Gasoline 157.50 +.38%
Natural Gas 11.65 +.53%
Heating Oil 178.85 +.31%
Gold 464.50 -.02%
Base Metals 134.72 +.70%
Copper 182.70 -.19%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.60% +.89%

Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +3.55%
Airlines +3.43%
Disk Drives +3.34%

Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.11%
HMOs -.68%
Software -1.83%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on TEN.
- Reiterated Underperform on CHTR, BMC, MERQE and MKL.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito, meeting with lawmakers on Capitol Hill, won praise from moderate Democratic Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska, who said he is reassured the judge wouldn’t be an activist.
- Wal-Mart Stores is putting a top US executive in charge of Seiyu Ltd. to turn around the ailing Japanese retailer as it seeks to boost overseas growth.
- Soccer’s World Cup telecasts in the US will remain on ABC, ESPN and Univision through 2014 under a record $425 million package awarded by the sport’s worldwide governing body.
- The cost of renting oil-drilling rigs probably will drop from record highs in the next two to three years as more are built, according to the head of development at Exxon Mobil.
- The SEC is investigating whether insiders had confidential information when they bought Placer Dome securities days before Barrick Gold made an unsolicited $9.2 billion bid for the company.
- US Treasuries fell today as stocks soared and traders bet economic reports would exceed estimates.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my Semi longs, Internet longs, Medical longs, Retail longs and Airline longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, almost every sector rose and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were lower into the close. The major averages and breadth are finished near session highs on strong volume. A bounce in energy prices from session lows, incessant bird flu talk and higher long-term rates could not derail today's rally. It appears to me investors are finally looking at the big picture, which is much more positive than many want to recognize. Inflation will decelerate, long-term rates are low by historic standards, economic growth remains healthy, housing is not collapsing, the dollar is firm, commodity prices are falling, stock valuations are very reasonable and consumer sentiment will rise going forward.

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