Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Stocks Finish Mixed as Investors Anticipate More Hawkish Fed

Indices
S&P 500 1,257.48 unch.
DJIA 10,888.16 -.02%
NASDAQ 2,232.71 -.30%
Russell 2000 673.69 +.33%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,552.71 +.04%
S&P Barra Growth 600.86 -.12%
S&P Barra Value 652.29 +.12%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.52 +.04%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 776.99 +.68%
Morgan Stanley Technology 528.57 -.62%
Transports 4,129.89 +.20%
Utilities 403.57 +.40%
Put/Call 1.08 +6.93%
NYSE Arms 1.30 -2.96%
Volatility(VIX) 11.89 +.42%
ISE Sentiment 127.00 -16.99%
US Dollar 91.65 +.74%
CRB 311.23 -.48%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 56.24 -.46%
Unleaded Gasoline 139.50 -.01%
Natural Gas 11.81 +.63%
Heating Oil 160.60 -.23%
Gold 503.50 unch.
Base Metals 144.73 +.37%
Copper 191.10 -.03%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.47% +1.60%

Leading Sectors
Steel +2.30%
HMOs +1.31%
Papers +1.19%

Lagging Sectors
Internet -.77%
Alternative Energy -.86%
Airlines -1.36%

Evening Review
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In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on USB and ADP.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The government must show probable cause to obtain information from Cingular Wireless LLC, Verizon Wireless and other providers of cell phone services in the US on the physical location of a user, a federal court ruled.
- Billionaire investor Carl Icahn hired investment bank Lazard Ltd. to conduct an “in-depth strategic analysis” of Time Warner and develop a plan to boost the company’s share prices.
- Crude oil fell and heating oil slipped to a four-month low on speculation that US inventories are sufficient to meet demand. Gasoline plunged to a nine-month low.
- The US dollar rose against the euro and the yen and Treasuries fell after a bigger-than-expected jump in US consumer confidence damped speculation the Fed may be nearing the end of its interest-rate increases.

Financial Times:
- Huawei Technologies, China’s biggest telecom-equipment company, said overseas sales will be about $4 billion this year, exceeding domestic revenue for the first time.

AP:
- New Orleans, devastated by Hurricane Katrina, has started free wireless Internet service in an effort to help its economy.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Internet longs, Retail longs and Computer longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market was slightly negative today as the advance/decline line finished mixed, sector performance was mixed and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today's market action was negative given the sell-off in many market leaders. The Oil Service Index has risen 14.2% since Oct. 20 as investors anticipated a bottom in oil prices in the upper $50s. I suspect a drop in oil below $55 per barrel will spur another round of selling in the stocks, which could temporarily pressure the overall market. However, I continue to view the drop in energy prices as a huge positive for equities over the intermediate-term.

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