Friday, June 16, 2006

Current Account Deficit Improves, Consumer Confidence Rises

- The Current Account Deficit for 1Q shrank to -$208.7B versus estimates of -$222.0B and -$223.1B in 4Q.
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for June rose to 82.4 versus estimates of 79.0 and a reading of 79.1 in May.

BOTTOM LINE: The US current-account deficit shrank more than forecast in the first quarter as the trade balance improved, Bloomberg reported. The gap shrank to 6.4% of GDP from 7% in 4Q. The current account gap will likely widen this quarter on lower overseas investment gains.

Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for June rose to 82.4 versus estimates of 79.0 and a reading of 79.1 in May. The expectations component of the index rose to 69.2 from 68.2 the prior month. The current conditions component of the index, which measures Americans’ perceptions of their financial situation and whether it’s a good time to buy big-ticket items like cares, surged to 103.1 from 96.1. I expect sentiment to make new cycle highs over the intermediate-term as stocks rise, gas prices fall, the job market remains relatively healthy, the situation in Iraq improves, inflation decelerates and long-term interest rates remain low.

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