Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rate Hike Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Retail longs, Networking longs and Semi longs. I added to my (EEM), (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is lower and volume is below average. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.3% year over year last week vs. a 3.2% rise the prior week. The long-term average is again of around 2.6%. I continue to see little evidence that a significant decline in consumer spending is on the horizon. I do, however, still expect to see retail sales decelerate back to average levels by next month. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as short-covering and bargain hunting offset Fed worries.

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