Tuesday, December 19, 2006

DJIA Hits Another Record High on Positive Fed Comments

Indices
S&P 500 1,425.55 +.22%
DJIA 12,471.32 +.24%
NASDAQ 2,429.55 -.25%
Russell 2000 782.10 +.01%
Wilshire 5000 14,272.34 +.18%
S&P Barra Growth 658.18 +.32%
S&P Barra Value 765.61 +.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 694.30 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 891.32 +.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 571.64 -.28%
Transports 4,637.97 -.46%
Utilities 459.79 +.66%
Put/Call .95 -15.18%
NYSE Arms .86 -4.54%
Volatility(VIX) 10.30 -2.83%
ISE Sentiment 152.0 -17.39%
US Dollar 83.46 -.64%
CRB 312.46 +.67%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.30 +.81%
Reformulated Gasoline 170.0 +1.50%
Natural Gas 7.13 +.78%
Heating Oil 171.25 -.48%
Gold 625.80 +1.28%
Base Metals 240.11 -.27%
Copper 302.0 -.31%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.59% +.26%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +2.49%
Energy +1.47%
HMOs +1.17%

Lagging Sectors
Alternative Energy -.83%
REITs -.91%
Semis -1.41%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Banc of America:
- Upgraded (SPG), (MAC), (NXL), (VTR), (HCP), (BXP), (EXR) to Buy.
- Downgraded (DRE), (PKY), (CLI), (GCT) to Sell.

Deutsche Bank:
- Rated (GFIG) Buy, target $75.
- Rated (ITG) Buy, target $60.
- Rated (NITE) Buy, target $25.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks rose, pushing the Dow to another record high, as comments from the Fed’s Fisher quelled economic concerns.
- Emerging market stocks headed for the biggest drop in three months after Thailand imposed then rescinded currency controls on international investors, highlighting the risks of investing in developing economies.
- Copper fell in NY after a report showed US building permits dropped to a nine-year low in November.

CNBC:
- Harrah’s Entertainment(HET) has accepted a $16.7 billion buyout offer from Apollo Management LP and Texas Pacific Group.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Computer longs and Biotech longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was slightly negative today as the advance/decline line finished modestly lower, sector performance was mixed and volume was slightly above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Today's overall market action was neutral. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 2.6% year-over-year this week vs. a 2.5% rise the prior week. The long-term average is a gain of about 3%. There is still no evidence, in my opinion, that a meaningful slowdown in consumer spending is underway, even as this remains a focal point for the many bears. Retail sales have decelerated recently on unseasonably warm weather and procrastination by shoppers in hopes of greater discounts. However, online sales will likely be even greater than raised expectations this holiday shopping season. I continue to believe a healthy labor market, falling energy prices, relatively low long-term interest rates, decelerating inflation, a rising stock market and less irrational pessimism will boost consumer spending back to above-average levels over the intermediate term as housing stabilizes at relatively high levels and auto production cutbacks subside. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index (MVRX) has soared 22.5% in less than five months vs. a 15.9% gain in the S&P 500 over the same time frame. I suspect the recent weakness in select retail is another buying opportunity.

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