Thursday, December 28, 2006

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Rising Economic Optimism

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs and Telecom longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is neutral as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are rising and volume is slightly below average. Short interest on the NYSE rose from mid November through mid December and remains near all-time highs despite recent market gains and almost weekly DJIA record highs. Days to cover rose to 6.3 from 6.0 the prior month. Bears remain stunningly complacent, in my opinion, as every rally is viewed as just another shorting/selling opportunity and every pullback is viewed as evidence of a major top. I continue to believe overall investor sentiment towards U.S. stocks has never before in history been this poor with the DJIA making all-time highs. The "mother of all short-covering rallies" will occur. It is just a matter of time. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on more economic optimism, short-covering and portfolio manager performance anxiety.

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