Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Positive Economic Data

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Retail longs and Internet longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is above average. The Bloomberg Crude Oil percentage of Bulls came in at 72.5% in the most recent survey. Crude Bears were 17.5%. This survey comprises 40 analysts, traders and brokers and is done weekly by Bloomberg. Bullish sentiment toward oil has only been higher one other time, October 2004, right before oil plunged from 27% from $55 per barrel to $40 per barrel. Right now, oil bulls are in a state of denial as record inflows into commodity funds keep the speculative mania alive. Almost every day, I read of new demand destroying alternative energy projects coming online and new finds around the world. Demand for oil has barely risen globally over the last three years during a global economic boom. I continue to believe oil will head substantially lower from current levels over the intermediate term as the mania subsides and the fundamentals reassert themselves. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, positive economic data and portfolio manager performance anxiety.

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