Sunday, December 17, 2006

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks rose last week, lifting the DJIA to a record, after reports showed inflation receded last month and earnings from companies such as Bear Stearns beat analysts’ estimates.
- European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told a newspaper that he shares the opinion of the US Federal Reserve that the US economy is showing only “slight” signs of weakness.
- Metals evoke bear market as production gains, hedge funds sell. At the Pacorini Group warehouses in New Orleans, the 15,000 metric tons of copper that have accumulated since September are enough to wire about 7 million refrigerators and make every short-seller salivate.
- Prime Minister Tony Blair said the UK will go “all the way” in its support for the elected government of Iraq, suggesting UK forces stationed in the southern province of Basra may stay beyond mid-2007.
- Natural gas in NY may fall because mild weather so far this winter has crimped demand for the furnace fuel and left inventories near record highs.
- China, the US, Japan, South Korea and India, which account for almost half of global energy use, will cooperate on energy conservation and stable oil supplies, China said as the five gathered for a summit. “We want to send a message to the world that the biggest oil consumers will be pushing ahead with energy saving, increasing energy efficiency,” Ma Kai, head of China’s top economic planning body, said in Beijing.
- China picked Toshiba’s Westinghouse Electric for the biggest international nuclear reactor contract in history, trumping Areva SA for a project worth about $5.3 billion.
- The US dollar posted the biggest weekly advance against the yen since August as reports showing US retail sales rebounded and jobless claims fell allayed concern the world’s biggest economy is losing momentum.
- President Bush, calling on the new Democratic-controlled Congress to restrain spending, said his administration will propose ways to curb wasteful government programs known as “earmarks.”
- The withdrawal of foreign forces from Iraq won’t be “sudden,” Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said, as UK Prime Minister Tony Blair pledged continuing support tot eh establishment of democracy and stability in the nation.
- Taiwan stocks, laggards in Asias since 2001, may catch up with markets elsewhere in the region next year as new products spur demand for video-game consoles, computers and semiconductors.
- France will withdraw 200 members of its special forces deployed in Afghanistan, French Defense Minister Alliot-Marie said. After initially operating in the south of the country, they were later deployed around Jalalabad, the largest city in the east, where clashes with Taliban fighters have accelerated.
- Time Warner’s(TWX) Time magazine named Internet users behind the self-made content on sites such as YouTube and MySpace.com as its “Person of the Year,” reflecting the Web’s “digital democracy.”
- Homeowners may give he biggest Treasury rally in four years a boost as falling bond yields trigger a rush to refinance mortgages and increase demand for government debt.

Wall Street Journal:
- Washington Mutual(WM) has slowed the pace of expansion after failing to gain share in fast-growing new markets.
- The 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act, an anti-fraud law, is costly to the US economy and unconstitutional, Pepperdine University School of Law Dean Ken Starr wrote.
- Apollo Management LP and Texas Pacific Group are expected to win the auction for Harrah’s Entertainment(HET) with their offer of at least $909 a share.

Fortune:
- How an Apple iPhone could rock wireless.

NY Times:
- Sprint Nextel Corp.(S) CEO Forsee said the mobile-phone company may work with cable operators to provide wireless products.
- Credit Suisse Group, Deutsche Bank AG, hedge funds and billionaire Warren Buffett are spending billions of dollars to buy life insurance policies from older people.

Washington Post:
- Democrats taking over the leadership of Senate and House committees are poised to launch investigations into the conduct of the war with Iraq and allegations of prisoner abuse.
- Democratic Senator Barack Obama called his purchase of land from indicted campaign contributor Antoin Rezko a “boneheaded” mistake.

Philadelphia Inquirer:
- The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board is expected to pick the two companies that will hold licenses to run slot machines in Philadelphia on Dec. 20.

AP:
- The Wall Street Journal tomorrow plans to announce the creation of a free, stock market tracker on the paper’s Web site.

LA Times:
- Syntroleum’s(SYNM) alternative jet fuel will face cold-weather test and trials with US Air Force refueling tankers after successful runs in B-52 engines. The fuel, which has been tested on B-52 planes over the last year, is a 50-50 mix of oil-based jet fuel and a synthetic liquid made from natural gas, and could replace traditional jet fuel in military and commercial planes.

Financial Times:
- Skype Technologies SA’s founders plan to start an on-line broadband television service that allows users to personalize their content.

Daily Telegraph:
- British Airways Plc CEO Walsh wants some of the UK air passenger tax to go to renew able energy projects.

London-based Times:
- Tesco Plc plans to convert al of its 2,000 distribution trucks to use a fuel that is partly made from agricultural products, citing Tesco’s CEO.

Economic Daily News:
- Asustek Computer targets sales of $23 billion in 2007, about 40% higher than this year.

Shanghai Securities News:
- China is implementing more controls of fixed-asset investment by centrally supervising the investment budgets of all state-owned enterprises for the first time.
- China’s inflation may stay at around 1.5% this year.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (COP), (NFX) and (OVEN).
- Made negative comments on (NYB) and (HLYS).

Citigroup:
- The National Retail Federation is now projecting total retail sales to increase 5% during this holiday season versus a 10-year average of a 4.6% gain.

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.25% to +.1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.05%
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.01%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (CAO)/.15
- (HOV)/1.05
- (JOYG)/.66
- (ORCL)/.22
- (SCS)/.19

Upcoming Splits
- (AEOS) 3-for2

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- 3Q Current Account Deficit is estimated to widen to -$225.0 billion versus -$218.4 billion in 2Q.

1:00 pm EST
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for December is estimated to rise to 34 versus 33 in November.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, boosted by automaker and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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