Sunday, December 03, 2006

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said that inflation is beginning to recede even as risks remain “tilted to the upside.”
- Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said crude inventories are too high. Global oil inventories stand at 2.3 billion barrels, Naimi said, which is 100 million barrels more than a year earlier.
- European stocks had their biggest weekly decline since July as the dollar fell against the euro and the pound.
- Pfizer Inc.’s(PFE) shares will likely drop after the world’s biggest drugmaker unexpectedly ended development of its most important drug
- The SEC postponed a vote on hedge-fund regulations scheduled for tomorrow to give agency staff more time to revise legal language.
- Tiger Woods plans to design a golf course in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the first by his Tiger Woods Design company set up last month.
- US investors who are congratulating themselves for putting money into stocks in Europe and Asia may soon find the best times are over. US investors have poured $106.1 billion this year into mutual funds that invest in stocks outside the US, up 40% from the same period in 2005, according to a report last week from Banc of America. They have pulled $1.4 billion out of domestic stock funds, versus inflows of $18.7 billion a year earlier.
- Jinchuan Group Co. has completed construction of a copper smelter capable of producing 200,000 metric tons a year of the metal, doubling output capacity, used in wires and pipes.
- Russia’s oil production rose in November as ExxonMobil Corp.’s(XOM) project on Sakhalin Island increased output.

Wall Street Journal:
- Eli Lilly(LLY) CEO Sidney Taurel said government price-controls in the US would stifle research. Taurel said Euoprean companies 30 years ago were the most innovative. Since then, more drug research has shifted to the US. The CEO said drugmakers’ profits are compensation for long-term investments and that drugmakers are posting growth of 5% to 6%, less than the double-digit increases at the end of the last decade. He said they currently spend about 10 times as much on research and development as on marketing.

Time Magazine:
- President Bush may announce a new plan in coming weeks to link the level of American troops in Iraq with the performance of the Iraqi government in quelling violence.

NY Times:
- The crime rate in Venezuela has soared even as oil wealth has been used to try and cut poverty, and President Hugo Chavez has mostly ignored the violence. Homicides are up 67% since 1999, citing figures from the Criminal Investigation Police. Chavez’s government has pushed aside police officers who don’t agree with the president’s “socialist revolution” principles, citing crime analysts.
- Walt Disney(DIS) plans to produce brief cartoons again, after making few in the last half-century, beginning with a film showing character Goofy trying to figure out home-theater installation.

Philadelphia Inquirer:
- Verizon Communications(VZ) will challenge Comcast Corp.(CMCSA) in the Philadelphia-area market with a telephone, internet and television package it’s expected to start selling this week.

Washington Post:
- The American Civil Liberties Union(ACLU) urged the US government to end a program that screens and creates risk profiles for every airline traveler entering or leaving the US.

Detroit Free Press:
- DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) will offer dealer incentives of as much as $7,000 per car to help clear out 2006 model-year vehicles beginning Dec. 5.

Financial Times:
- Goldman Sachs(GS) has developed a product that replicates the performance of thousands of hedge funds at a fraction of the cost to investors, citing Edgar Senior, Goldman’s executive director for fund derivative structuring. The Absolute Return Tracker index will replicate the aggregate position of the hedge fund industry. Goldman will charge a flat 1 percent annual fee, compared with between 4% and 7% charged for investments through funds of funds, and will allow trading on a daily basis.
- Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) will supply Amazon.com(AMZN) with high-speed digital printers for the online retailer’s books-on-demand service.

Sunday Times:
- First Data Corp.(FDC) may take over the credit card operation of Allied Irish Banks Plc, Ireland’s biggest lender my market value

Business Times:
- Western Digital(WDC) of the US may spend $150 million to more than double production at its Malaysian plant that makes hard-disk drives.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (RL), (DUK), (IBM), (CCRT) and (DTV).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.15%
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.11%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (CMTL)/.33
- (PLL)/.24
- (RVI)/.05

Upcoming Splits
- (AMED) 4-for-3
- (FMD) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales for October are estimated to fall .5% versus a 1.1% decline in September.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mixed as losses in automaker shares are offsetting gains in technology stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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