Monday, December 04, 2006

Stocks Finish Sharply Higher on Lower Energy Prices, M&A Activity and Investor Performance Anxiety

Indices
S&P 500 1,409.12 +.89%
DJIA 12,283.85 +.74%
NASDAQ 2,448.39 +1.46%
Russell 2000 795.85 +1.88%
Wilshire 5000 14,170.92 +.97%
S&P Barra Growth 653.64 +.69%
S&P Barra Value 753.35 +1.08%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 681.40 +1.41%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 887.89 +1.19%
Morgan Stanley Technology 576.03 +1.51%
Transports 4,745.77 +.82%
Utilities 460.77 +.68%
Put/Call .86 -3.37%
NYSE Arms 1.07 -18.44%
Volatility(VIX) 11.23 -3.69%
ISE Sentiment 137.0 +13.22%
US Dollar 82.49 +.01%
CRB 315.38 -1.82%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.43 -1.58%
Reformulated Gasoline 166.45 -2.21%
Natural Gas 7.75 -7.87%
Heating Oil 180.89 -2.1%
Gold 651.0 +.02%
Base Metals 245.89 +.73%
Copper 318.0 +.13%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.42% -.18%

Leading Sectors
Gaming +5.45%
Steel +4.11%
I-Banks +2.59%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -.60%
Oil Tankers -.65%
Drugs -1.19%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Deutsche Bank:
- Rated (EGLT) Buy, target $20.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- International Speedway Corp.(ISCA), the largest US automobile racetrack operator, said it had ended plans to build a Nascar track on NYC’s Staten Island because of a lack of political support and unacceptable approval requirements.
- Delta Air Lines reached an agreement with the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.
- Puget Energy’s(PSD) Washington utility, the state’s biggest, is seeking proposals for construction of a 500-kilowatt solar-powered generating facility.
- Ecopetrol, Colombia’s state oil company, said it plans to increase production from its Tibu oil field by more than 800% with help from partner Petroleo Brasileiro SA.
- Natural gas plunged almost 8%, the most in more than two months, as forecasters predicted above-average temperatures across most of the US starting this weekend and speculation by investment funds subsided.
- US Democratic Representative Barney Frank, expected to lead the House panel that overseas Wall Street, said he may hold hearings on hedge funds.
- The SEC is unified in wanted to limit the pool of individuals that can invest in hedge funds and proposing new rules aimed at curtailing hedge-fund fraud, SEC Chairman Cox said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Biotech longs, Semi longs, Medical longs and Telecom longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, almost every sector rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were lower into the close. Today's overall market action was very bullish as the major averages and breadth finished near session highs. As well, many market-leading stocks traded substantially higher throughout the day. Natural gas plunged almost 8% today as record speculation by investment funds subsides. I sense many US equity shorts and underexposed longs are entering "hope and pray" mode again with respect to their expectations of a significant market pullback before year-end. Bloomberg reported Microsoft's (MSFT) Zune dropped to fifth place in its second week on the market as it lost share. It now has 2.1% of the U.S. digital media player market. Apple (AAPL) and Sandisk (SNDK) led sales in the week ended Nov. 25. I believe investors are still focusing too much on the iPod market and not enough on the PC market, but this is still good news for Apple and it remains my second largest long position, behind Google (GOOG). Apple should break above $100 over the coming weeks.

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