Friday, January 05, 2007

Job Creation Above Expectations, Unemployment Rate Still Historically Low, Hourly Earnings Rising More Than Twice Inflation Rate

- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for December was 167K versus estimates of 100K and an upwardly revised 154K in November.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for December was -12K versus estimates of -15K and a downwardly revised -20K in November.
- The Unemployment Rate for December was 4.5% versus estimates of 4.5% and 4.5% in November.
- Average Hourly Earnings for December rose .5% versus estimates of .3% and an upwardly revised .3% in November.
BOTTOM LINE: Employers in the US added a greater-than-forecast 167,000 workers to payrolls in December and incomes grew by the most in eight months, adding to evidence that the US economy is poised to accelerate modestly as housing stabilizes and auto production cutbacks subside, Bloomberg reported. Average Hourly Earnings rose 4.2% from year-ago levels, more than twice the inflation rate as measure by the Consumer Price Index. I continue to believe the labor market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor cost increases.

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