Sunday, February 04, 2007

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The S&P 500 completed its best weekly advance since August, bolstered by speculation the economy is expanding without fueling inflation.
- The Indianapolis Colts beat the Chicago Bears 29-17 in the Super Bowl, making Tony Dungy the first black coach to win a National Football League Title.
- Overstock.com(OSTK) sued Morgan Stanley(MS), Goldman Sachs Group(GS) and other brokers, saying they caused the company’s shares to drop by manipulating the stock.
- US Treasuries advanced this week for the first time in four after government employment and inflation reports supported the Fed’s view that the economy is growing at a moderate pace.
- President Bush asked congressional Democrats today for their cooperation on energy, immigration, health care and other areas where they share common objectives.
- Companies in the same city as the Super Bowl’s victor outperform a benchmark stock index for a month after the NFL championship game is played, according to Goldman Sachs(GS).
- Denny Sanford, chairman and CEO of financial-holding company United National corp., today donated $400 million to a Sioux Falls, South Dakota-based health-care system.
- The productivity of US workers grew at a faster clip last quarter and labor costs stabilized, a sign that wages may not become a source of inflation, economists forecast a report this week will show.
- Raising interest rates didn’t work. So now Asia’s central bankers and governments are trying curbs on bank lending, construction fees, even environmental regulations in an effort to combat asset bubbles that have made Seoul the world’s second-priciest city and Mumbai apartments cost as much as Manhattan’s.
- Vornado Realty Trust(VNO), trying to allay concerns that is bid for Equity Office Properties(EOP) Trust is riskier than an offer from Blackstone Group LP, has offered Equity Office shareholders $56 a share in cash up front for as much as 55% of the shares outstanding.
- Copper futures in Shanghai fell the maximum daily limit of 4% after declines in global markets attributed to a report in the Wall Street Journal of losses at a metals-trading hedge fund.
- Workers at BHP Billiton(BHP) accepted a sweetened wage offer at a Chilean copper mine, averting a strike.
- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert approved development of a missile defense system to guard against short- and intermediate-range rocket attacks by Hezbollah and Palestinians. The “Iron Dome” system will provide Israeli citizens with “optimal protection” against attack.
- Shares of Industrial Bank Co., part-owned by a unit of HSBC Holdings Plc, surged 53% on it debut in Shanghai after the $2 billion offer attracted record bids from investors in China.

Wall Street Journal:
- This past week produced a string of good news for the US economy. Gross domestic product, the most closely watched barometer of growth, expanded by a healthy 3.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter.

Economist.com:
- India’s growth rate is close to China’s; but signs of overheating suggest that this pace cannot be sustained.

NY Times:
- New Orleans residents hardest hit by flooding during Hurricane Katrina can sue the US Army Corps of Engineers, citing a court decision.

Washington Post:
- The Federal Aviation Administration will begin introducing a proposal to finance a new US air traffic control system in the agency’s budget, to be submitted to Congress Feb. 5.

Time.com:
- Last year 2.4 million investors began trading stocks through the Shanghai exchange, a 250% increase in new accounts. But the alarm is being sounded by Beijing officials, who are worried there could be another Chinese market meltdown like the one in 2001 that soured the public on stocks for years.

LA Times:
- General Electric’s NBC Universal Inc. will this week name Jeff Zucker as CEO, replacing Bob Wright.

Financial Times:
- Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Spain’s second-biggest bank, is planning further expansion in the US.

Sunday Telegraph:
- Vodafone Group Plc, Telefonica SA, and AT&T’s Cingular unit are among telecommunications companies planning a mobile phone search engine to rival Google Inc.(GOOG).

Sunday Express:
- Regal Petroleum Plc may become a buyout target amid speculation that it is about to announce it found an oil field worth at least $1 billion.

Focus:
- Stavros Dimas, the European Union Environment Commissioner who wants to force automakers in the 27-member bloc to limit new cars’ emissions, will trade his DaimlerChrysler AG-made Mercedes S-class company car for a hybrid that is more environmentally friendly.

El Universal:
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’ backers want him to oversee all information that circulates over the Internet, in print media and on mobile phones.

Nikkei:
- Komatsu Ltd. is planning to sell hybrid-powered construction equipment. The construction equipment maker has developed a fuel-efficient hydraulic shovel which requires a third less energy than regular shovels.

Asahi:
- North Korea will demand energy resources form the US and other members of six-party nuclear disarmament discussions as an incentive to shut its atomic reactor when they meet this week.

Financial News:
- China risks stagflation, a period of inflation with low economic growth, in the second half of this year as investment slows, citing a government researcher. China’s economic growth may slow to below 8% if new investment shrinks this year, which may bring overall fixed-asset investment growth to 15% later in the year. New investment dropped year-over-year in December after expanding by 3.7% in the first 11 months.

Kuwait News Agency:
- Qatar, the world’s largest supplier of liquefied natural gas, said a cartel between producers of the fuel is unlikely, citing the nation’s Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (MHK), (DISH), (CEN) and (ANAD).

Citigroup:
- A rank of cash as a % of total market cap reveals 6 of top 20 companies in the S&P 500 are semi or semi equipment companies. Excluding banks and other financial institutions, semiconductor/semi equipment companies represent 5 of top 10. Of these 5, (TER) and (KLAC) rank #1 and #2.
- We see the next wave of news flow in semiconductors as positively biased, improving the sentiment for our top ideas (INTC), (TXN), (SPSN) and (IDTI).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.06%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.04%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (APC)/1.26
- (BEAV)/.26
- (CTSH)/.43
- (HEW)/.24
- (HUM)/.88
- (KLAC)/.71
- (LVS)/.31
- (MNT)/.25
- (OSTK)/-.84
- (PBI)/.77
- (PPS)/.04
- (QSII)/.30
- (TIN)/.73
- (TNB)/.72
- (WMS)/.30

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for January is estimated at 57.0 versus 56.7 in December.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and automaker shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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