Stocks Surging into Final Hour Again After Constructive Fed Comments

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Computer longs, Retail longs, I-Banking longs and Semi longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is mildly higher, most sectors are rising and volume is heavy. Weekly mortgage applications rose 3.6%, the third consecutive weekly gain. As well, purchase applications rose again; they were up 2.6%, and up 17% from October lows. The upcoming April retail same-store-sales and advance retail sales data will likely come in below even lowered estimates. The coldest April in a decade and the Easter calendar shift played a huge part in the likely weak data. However, I wonder if this is already priced into stocks given how much short interest has risen in the retail sector and how many analysts have made cautious comments of late regarding the prospects for April sales. Yesterday, Morgan Stanley described a "perfect storm" for softline retail during April. However, their note also said their proprietary retail sales leading indicator is predicting an acceleration to 6%, excluding autos and gas, in July from 4.2% in February. I agree with these expectations. So far this year, despite numerous perceived headwinds, the Morgan Stanley Retail Index (MVRX) is 8.1% higher vs. a 7.3% gain for the S&P 500. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on buyout speculation, short-covering, lower oil prices and investment manager performance anxiety after another failed sell-off attempt.