Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, May 21, 2007
Stocks Mostly Higher into Final Hour, Led by Tech Shares and Homebuilders
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Retail longs, Internet longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are gaining and volume is above average. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.17%. The euro is breaking below its 50-day moving average vs. the dollar today. I continue to believe the U.S. dollar has likely bottomed for the year. Shanghai copper inventories rose another 16.8% last week to the highest since April 2004, however copper is 2.3% higher so far today. I still believe any meaningful rallies in the metal should be sold. Google (GOOG) is surging 7 points from session lows to $474 on a report from Netratings that it had 55.2% of April U.S. search share vs. 21.9% for Yahoo! (YHOO) and 9% for MSN/Windows. U.S. growth stocks are the cheapest vs. value stocks in over three decades. Google is arguably one of the greatest, if not the greatest, growth stocks on the planet. It has never traded at a lower valuation relative to its future earnings estimates as now. I view these estimates as conservative. Moreover, it trades at a discount to its Internet peers. I sense the Google train is leaving the station once again. I remain long the stock. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower long-term rates, investment manager performance anxiety, buyout speculation and more economic optimism.
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