Initial Jobless Claims Below 300K Again, Leading Indicators Fall

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 293K versus estimates of 315K and 298K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims fell to 2473K versus estimates of 2518K and 2551K prior.
- Leading Indicators for April fell -.5% versus estimates of unch. and an upwardly revised .6% gain in March.

BOTTOM LINE: First-time claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped to a four-month low, pointing to strength in the labor market, Bloomberg said. The four-week moving-average of jobless claims fell to 305,500, the lowest in a year and down from 338,300 in early March. The unemployment rate among those eligible for jobless benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, held steady at a historically low 1.9%. I continue to believe the job market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor cost increases.

A measure of the US economy’s future course unexpectedly fell in April, dragged down by lower housing construction, Bloomberg reported. Money supply growth and rising stock prices contributed positively to the report. The decline in building permits had the largest negative impact. The ECRI weekly leading economic index remains at cycle highs. I continue to believe US economic growth is accelerating this quarter and will move to more average rates by year-end.