Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on More Economic Optimism

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my I-Baking longs, Internet longs and Biotech longs. I covered some of my (EEM) short and (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mildly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, most sectors are gaining and volume is above average. Google is surging to session highs on news that its new algorithm will add books, local images, news and video to basic search results. The fact that this stock trades at a discount relative to its internet peers is crazy to me. I don't believe most investors understand how dominate this company is in its fast-growing space. I think it will continue to grow at relatively high levels for much longer than most expect. I still think the stock is a steal anywhere near current levels. I remain long. Every Apple (AAPL) bull I know has taken profits recently, and most bears I know are short the stock. Considering that Apple hit an all-time high recently and had a relatively muted adverse reaction to today's false iPhone delay report, I suspect another new high for the stock is in the offing over the next few weeks. I remain long Apple, as well. Oil is falling -$.64/bbl., however gas futures are at session highs after Valero (VLO) announced it was shutting its Houston refinery due to "steam system and boiler problems." I wonder if Valero has considered ceasing all refining operations and just buying gas futures as a new business model? I continue to believe the nationwide rash of refinery "outages" is prompting further global demand destruction and raises the odds of substantial energy price declines this fall. As well, the U.S. dollar is surging 0.55% today, which is pressuring most commodities. I suspect the US dollar has bottomed for the year. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels into the close on short-covering, more economic optimism and lower energy prices.

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