Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Federal Reserve officials signaled they’ve shifted their stance in favor of taking out greater “insurance” against the risk of recession.
- The euro’s gains are harming the economy of the 15 nations sharing the currency and may exacerbate a forecast slowdown in growth, European officials.
- Global investment in speculative commodity funds rose by almost a third to $175 billion last year, the second-biggest jump ever, helping to push energy, metal and agriculture prices to records, according to a report by Barclays Capital. Investments in exchange-traded products, US commodity-linked mutual funds and products tracking commodity indexes rose by $41 billion, short of the record $48 billion increase in 2006. Such investments have seen $160 billion in inflows since 2001.
- The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, fell the most since 1989 on concern that economic growth in the US and China is slowing.
- Total SA’s CEO Christophe de Margerie said that Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer and the country with the biggest reserves, should produce more and do “everything” to help cut the fuel’s price increase.
- France to Ban Monsanto’s Biotech Corn Seed on Health Concerns.
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Colombia’s biggest guerrilla group, identified by the US as a terrorist organization, is an “army” with political goals that is worthy of the world’s repect.
- Ford Motor(F), the world’s third-largest carmaker, is unveiling its second small-car prototype, part of CEO Alan Mulally’s effort to create “one Ford.”
- Gulf Air, Bahrain’s loss-making national carrier, and Boeing Co.(BA) signed a $6 billion agreement for the delivery of 24 Dreamliner aircraft to begin in 2016, airline spokesman Adnan Malik said.
- Researches grew a new beating animal heart using transplanted heart cells from young, healthy rats, opening a new field of research for treatment of an ailment affected an estimated 5 million Americans.
- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, raising rival Hillary Rodham Clinton by $5 billion, offered a $75 billion economic stimulus plan that includes tax cuts and government spending.
- Taiwan’s stocks rose after the opposition party won a landside victory in parliamentary elections on a platform promising better ties with China.

Wall Street Journal:
- Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is poised to once again come to the rescue of Citigroup Inc.(C).
- Two senior executives are leaving Steven Cohen’s big hedge fund, SAC Capital Advisors, including Mr. Cohen’s right-hand man for the past 11 years.

Forbes.com:
- We’re Too Gloomy. Since the foreign economy is twice America’s size, and is strong, America should do well in 2008 – better, at any rate, than people expect.

NY Times:
- Senator Barack Obama may give NY Senator Hillary Clinton a battle in her home state’s primary election if he is able to win the South Carolina contest on Jan. 26.
- Cosmetic medical procedure centers in US malls increased to as many as 2,500 from 25 in 2002, driven by baby boomers who want to retail a youthful appearance.
- Toyota Will Offer a Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle by 2010.
- Looking for a growth industry? Look no further than pet products and services.

CNBC.com:
- 5-Star Real Estate Stock Picks. (video)
- Countrywide(CFC) sale expected to spur more deals.
- Hovnanian(HOV): Housing Slump Is Nearing Bottom. (video)
- Sell Block: Mortgage Madness! Cramer thought it was time to go through, one by one, to determine if these stocks still belong in the Sell Block.
- See the New Cars Detroit Has to Offer.

MarketWatch.com:
- Surging gold ETF holds more metal than some governments.
- New ETF takes value-based approach to large-cap growth stocks.

IBD:
- Internet’s The Way Of Life For Chinese Youth.

TheStreet.com:
- Deere(DE) Ready to Grow in a Corn-Crazed World.

CMP Channel:
- Interview: VMware(VMW) CEO Diane Greene.

ZDNet:
- GM invests in ‘trash to ethanol’ start-up.

Philly Metro:
- Hybrids, advanced diesels and green alternatives are pushing aside the traditional displays of speed and chrome at this week’s Detroit auto show, a nod to a new fuel-efficient reality for car makers.

NY Post:
- WaMu(WM), JPMorgan(JPM) In Talks.

Business Week:
- Bank M&A heats up amid subprime fallout.
- What should Apple(AAPL) do next?
- Researchers and utility companies are pushing the idea of systems that adjust household electricity use to ease periods of peak demand and cut consumers’ bills.
- Stocks: 14 Debt-Free Favorites. S&P’s latest screen reveals some top-ranked outfits, including Microsoft, Aflac and eBay.
- Behold the Broadband Value Circle.

LA Times:
- “American Idol,” the most-watched show on US television, probably will profit from the Hollywood writers’ strike because it can demand higher advertising rates as competing shows relay on reruns.

USA Today:
- A small software developer on Monday plans to unveil a suite of applications – browser, camera, games and more – based on the new Google-endorsed operating system, Android.
- Apple(AAPL) fans hope for subcompact computer at Macworld.

CNNMoney.com:
- Rise robots, rise!
- Why the Countrywide(CFC) deal makes sense.

SmartMoney.com:
- The Case for Recession Is Wrong. For years, as the economy has boomed, the permabears have said recession is just around the corner. They’ve been wrong.

Reuters:
- BMW sees no signs of US demand slowdown.
- Dollar may finally find reprieve in 2008.
- Biotech companies race for drought-tolerant crops.
- Faced with potential loss of black support, presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton said on Sunday her chief rival for the Democratic nomination Barack Obama was distorting her comments on race.

AP:
- New Jersey last year moved into first place from second as the US state with the most millionaire households. About 7.12% of the state’s 3.2 million households had a total of $1 million in assets, up from the 6.46% in 2006, citing a study by Phoenex Affluent Marketing Service. Both liquid and investable assets were considered in the survey, including savings, stocks and bonds, precious metals and retirement accounts. The equity in homes wasn’t included. Maryland and was second last year, Connecticut was third and Hawaii fourth.
- Netflix Inc., the largest US mail-order movie-rental service, plans to announce that it will permit unlimited viewing of movies and television shows over the Internet.

Financial Times:
- Kuwait May Make ‘Significant’ Investment in Merrill(MER).
- GE(GE) to double investments in renewable energy.
- Mobility and music are expected to take centre stage on Tuesday as Steve Jobs, Apple’s(AAPL) CEO, introduces new products at the computer maker’s annual MacWorld conference in San Francisco.
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) will open small-format grocery stores under the name “Marketside” in Arizona this year in an attempt to challenge UK-based Tesco Plc’s Fresh & Easy markets.

TimesOnline:
- Goodbye to all that: the worst is over for the global credit crunch.

Oberver:
- Merrill Lynch(MER) held talk with potential bidders for its $5 billion stake in Bloomberg LP. Merrill, the owner of about 20% of Bloomberg, discussed the sale of the stake with private-equity firm Blackstone Group LP(BX) last week.

Independent:
- Britain’s wind power revolution. Hutton’s dramatic policy shift signals less reliance on nuclear energy. Offshore wind farms could provide all UK homes with electricity within 13 years.

The People:
- UK troops may stay in Afghanistan for decades as they try to rebuild the South Asian country and battle Taliban insurgents, British Defense Secretary Des Browne said in an interview.

The Australian:
- Alcoa Inc.(AA) may be waiting for an opportunity to take over partner Alumina Ltd.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (TEX) and (FHN).

Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (BKC), target $31.
- Our top picks in softline retail for 2008 are (GPS), (ANF) and (PLCE).
- Upgraded (UA) to Buy, target $65.

CSFB:
- Rated (FISV) Outperform, target $64.
- Upgraded (NWA) to Outperform.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -1.0% to -.25% on avg.
S&P 500 futures +.25%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (MTB)/1.68
- (DNA)/.68
- (SCHW)/.26

Upcoming Splits
- (STAN) 2-for-1

Economic Data
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The National Retail Federation Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by shipbuilding and mining shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixsed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.