Thursday, April 03, 2008

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Tech Sector Strength, Short-Covering, Lower Energy Prices

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs, Semi longs and Computer longs. I covered all my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is mildly bullish as the advance/decline line is about even, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is slightly above average. Today’s overall market action is bullish considering recent gains, apprehension over tomorrow’s employment report and the scary rhetoric on CNBC coming from the testimony regarding the JPMorgan/Bear acquisition. The VIX is falling 1.0% and remains above average at 23.2. The ISE Sentiment Index is a low 101.0 and the total put/call is above average at 1.02. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been below average most of the day and is currently .86. The AAII % Bulls fell to 36.7% this week and the % Bears rose to 39.4%. Investor reaction to Research In Motion’s(RIMM) strong earnings report is a broad market positive. Many market-leading stocks are substantially outperforming the major averages today. Corporate insiders continue to exhibit very bullish behavior. The iTraxx Europe Senior Financials Credit Default Swap Index, which includes UBS AG among many other key European financials, is plunging another 10.25 basis points today to 82.75. This is down almost 50% from its high on March 13, which is a major positive. Nikkei futures indicate an +35 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +100 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, tech sector strength and lower energy prices.

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