Thursday, June 12, 2014

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Maliki Turns to Militias to Halt al-Qaeda Onslaught. As his army flees from an al-Qaeda splinter group, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is rallying Shiite militias to defend his government, raising the specter of civil war in OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer. In a televised news conference yesterday Maliki urged citizens to take up arms after the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant group seized control of the northern city of Mosul, stealing weapons and helicopters from police and army bases as Iraqi government forces fled. He vowed to build an army of volunteers to “pull the thorns out by ourselves.” 
  • BOK Holds Rate as Won Near Six-Year High Poses Growth Risk. South Korea’s central bank left its key rate unchanged, supporting growth that faces headwinds from sluggish investment and a won near a six-year high.The central bank held the seven-day repurchase rate at 2.5 percent for a 13th straight month, it said in a statement in Seoul today, as forecast by all 19 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
  • Asian Stocks Retreat From Six-Year High as Kiwi Advances. Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index retreating from its highest close in six years, after U.S. stocks dropped by the most in three weeks. New Zealand’s dollar jumped to a three-week high after its central bank raised interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.5 percent by 9:52 a.m. in Tokyo after closing at the highest level since June 9, 2008. Japan’s Topix index slid 1 percent as the yen gained before the Bank of Japan starts a meeting today.
  • Copper Falls as China Port Probe Fuels Demand Concerns. Copper declined for the sixth time in seven sessions in New York as a Chinese probe into financing transactions eroded demand prospects for deals using the metal as collateral. Officials are looking at whether metals stockpiled at Qingdao Port fell short of obligations used to secure loans, and are focusing on Decheng Mining, said two bankers assisting the inquiry. Analysts at Barclays Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the probe may curb copper inventory financing, a source of demand. Prices also fell after the World Bank cut its estimate for 2014 global economic growth.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Iraq Signals Openness to U.S. Airstrikes Against al Qaeda, U.S. Officials Say. Iraq has privately signaled to the Obama administration that it would allow the U.S. to conduct airstrikes with drones or manned aircraft against al Qaeda militant targets on Iraqi territory, senior U.S. officials said Wednesday. The Obama administration is considering a number of options, including the possibility of providing "kinetic support" for the Iraqi military fighting al Qaeda rebels who seized two major...
  • Activist Funds Dust Off 'Greenmail' Playbook. More companies are resorting to an old tactic to get rid of activist investors: Pay them to go away. The practice, which involves buying back shares from activist hedge funds, has raised concerns among some investors because it bears similarities to "greenmail," a controversial strategy popular in the 1980s. Back then, aggressive investors such as Carl Icahn and the late Saul Steinberg bought company shares and... 
  • Owners May Move Metal From China. Operators of metals warehouses in South Korea and Taiwan are receiving inquiries about moving metal held in the Chinese port of Qingdao to their facilities in the wake of an investigation into potential irregularities at the port, according to people at three warehouse companies. Metal owners are looking to shift their stocks from China to warehouses in the region that are licensed by the London Metal Exchange, a person at one of the warehouse companies said. LME-licensed warehouses in Korea and Taiwan are among the...
  • While Obama Fiddles. The fall of Mosul is as big as Russia's seizure of Crimea. The fall of Mosul, Iraq, to al Qaeda terrorists this week is as big in its implications as Russia's annexation of Crimea. But from the Obama presidency, barely a peep. Barack Obama is fiddling while the world burns. Iraq, Pakistan, Ukraine, Russia, Nigeria, Kenya, Syria. These foreign wildfires, with more surely to come, will burn unabated for two years until the United States has a new president. The one we've got can barely notice...
Fox News:
MarketWatch.com: 
CNBC:
  • Oil prices head higher as Iraq tensions flare. Surging U.S. oil production was expected to drive oil prices lower this year, but a confluence of geopolitical events—particularly a Sunni militant uprising in Iraq—could now drive already high prices even higher and keep them there.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Reuters: 
Hong Kong Standard:
  • Shenzhen New-Home Sales Plunged 48.8% Y/Y in May. Used-home sales drop 30% y/y, citing data from Chinese city's urban planning commission.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.0 +3.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 75.25 +.75 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.12%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (FNSR)/.38
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Retail Sales Advance for May are estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.1% gain in April.
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto for May are estimated to rise +.4% versus unch. in April.
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for May are estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in April.
  • The Import Price Index for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.4% decline in April.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 310K versus 312K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2605K versus 2603K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for April are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Australia unemployment report, $13B 30Y T-Bond auction, Bloomberg June US Economic Survey, Bloomberg weekly Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (MFRM) analyst event, (CNX) analyst day and the (BX) investor day could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

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