Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• U.S. Ambassador Baucus Says China Cyber Theft Is a Threat. The U.S. will use diplomatic and legal means to halt China’s computer theft of trade secrets, its new ambassador in Beijing said today, amid escalating tensions between the two sides over cybersecurity. “Cyber-enabled theft of trade secrets by state actors in China has emerged as a major threat to our economic and thus national security,” Max Baucus, who took up the post of U.S. ambassador to China in March, told members of the American business community during a speech in Beijing today.

• Asian Stocks Rise as Investors Watch for U.S. Recovery. Asian stocks rose, led by technology shares, amid optimism the U.S. economy is emerging from a worse-than-estimated contraction last quarter. Yahoo Japan Corp., an Internet portal operator, added 1.7 percent after saying it will acquire KC Card Co.’s credit and financial operations. Rakuten Inc. rose 3.5 percent after the Japanese online retailer was reported to be in talks to invest in a discount airline with AirAsia Bhd. Innolux Corp., a maker of monitors, jumped 6.9 percent in Taipei, leading gains among information technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 percent to 145.01 as of 10:56 a.m. in Tokyo, with all of its 10 industry groups advancing.

• Inflation Pickup Imperils No-Volatility Bubble: Chart of the Day.

• BHP(BHP), Rio(RIO) Seen Curbing $19 Billion of Buybacks on Iron-Ore Plunge. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Rio Tinto Group. (RIO), the world’s two biggest mining companies, may need to rein in the size of widely anticipated share buybacks if this year’s 30 percent slump in iron ore deepens in the second half.

• Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) Falls as Forecast Trails Estimates. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY), the operator of about 1,500 home-goods and baby-product stores, fell as much as 7.4 percent in late trading after forecasting second-quarter profit that was less than analysts’ estimated amid competition from online retailers. The shares slid as low as $56.60 at 4:56 p.m. in New York.

Wall Street Journal:

• Jihadists Step Up Recruitment Drive. Sunni Insurgents Use Victories in Iraq, Syria, as Calling Card on Social Media to Help Forge Islamic State. A Sunni jihadist group that has seized vast territories in Iraq and Syria is parlaying its battlefield successes into a recruitment drive that is attracting more foreign fighters, say Western and Arab officials. The message from the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS: Join us in forming a Sunni-led religious state spanning from...

• Lenders Are Warned on Risk. Regulator Urges Caution by Banks About Looser Standards in Pursuit of Profits. Intense competition in a slow-growth, low-interest-rate environment is continuing to fuel riskier lending by banks, a top U.S. regulator warned in a report released on Wednesday. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency highlighted two areas in particular where banks took on more risk in pursuit of profits: high-yielding loans issued to more speculative borrowers and indirect auto loans, in which banks provide...
  

• Hedge Fund Industry Surpasses $3 Trillion for First Time. 

• Rulings on Oil Exports Roil Industry, Washington. Companies Struggle to Understand Implications Amid Glut Spurred by Fracking.

• Supreme Court: Police Need Warrants to Search Cellphone Data. Unanimous Supreme Court Says Privacy Interests Outweigh Police Convenience.

• Boehner Stands Up. The House will sue the President for trampling the separation of powers.

• Behind the Productivity Plunge: Fewer Startups. New businesses were created at a 30% lower rate in 2012 than the annual average rate in the 1980s.

MarketWatch.com:

• Are drones illegal in your state? This map can tell you.

CNBC:

• Google(GOOG) fit for a 'buy': Bob Peck.

Zero Hedge:

• ISIS Holds Parade With Captured US Military Vehicles. 

• Today's Global Warming Propaganda Is Brought To You By...

• How Barclays Got Caught Red-Handed With "Pernicious HFT Fraud".

• GDP Disaster: Final Q1 GDP Crashes To -2.9%, Lowest Since 2009, Far Below The Worst Expectations. (graph)

• Baghdad May Lose Its Drinking Water As ISIS Approaches Second Largest Dam.

• In The First Quarter $250 Billion In Federal Debt Bought Negative $74 Billion In GDP. (graph)

• The State Of The Union: A Friendly Reminder Where We Stand Now.

• Turkey's "200 Tons Of Secret Gold" Trade With Iran: The Biggest, Most Bizarre Money Laundering Scheme Ever?

ValueWalk:

• Paulson Builds Stake in Allergan; Supports Valeant.

Business Insider: 

• Iraqi Officials: We Have Essentially Given Up The North Of The Country.

• ISIS Militants Held A Massive Military Parade In Mosul. (pics)

• SAMSUNG: Our Next Earnings Report Is Going To Be Pretty Bad.

• GoPro Goes Public Thursday And Shares Are Priced At $24.

• CIA OFFICER: We Had No Idea Militants Would Seize Iraqi Cities.

• The Rise Of Robo-Advisor Is Reminiscent Of What Happens Before Major Market Corrections.

• Emails Reveal Former IRS Official At Center Of Scandal Suggested Targeting A Sitting GOP Senator For Audit.

• GM(GM) Tells Dealers To Stop Selling Cruze Sedans.

CharlotteObserver.com:

• Bank of America(BAC) lays off 540 in Charlotte.

Reuters:

• IRS agents head to Macau as U.S. steps up scrutiny of casinos. U.S. authorities are ramping up their investigation into money flows from gambling hotspot Macau to ensure that U.S. casinos with operations there are not used as conduits to funnel crime proceeds from Asia and elsewhere into the U.S. financial system. Agents of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service's criminal enforcement unit traveled to Macau last month to gather information, two sources familiar with the matter said. An IRS spokesman declined to comment on Wednesday.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99

Financial Times:

• Fed warns banks they face tougher tests. The Federal Reserve has warned banks in the US that tests of their ability to survive a financial crisis will be made tougher – with new risk assessments and regular checks to ensure they fix any weaknesses identified in the process.

Evening Recommendations
Jefferies:

• Rated (CBS) Buy, target $72.

• Rated (FOXA) Buy, target $43.

• Rated (DIS) Buy, target $100.

• Rated (TWX) Buy, target $80.

• Rated (VIAB) Buy, target $100.

• Rated (IPG) Buy, target $23.

• Rated (GCI) Buy, target $35. 

• Rated (NWSA) Buy, target $22.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.0 +.5 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 73.25 +.5 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures +.16%.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (LEN)/.51

• (SCS)/.16

• (WOR)/.67

• (WGO)/.39

• (CAG)/.55

• (NKE)/.75

• (SCHN)/.06

• (MKC)/.62

• (PRGS)/.33

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 310K versus 312K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2565K versus 2561K prior.

• Personal Income for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in April.

• Personal Spending for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in April.

• The PCE Core for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in April.

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for June is estimated at 10.0 versus 10.0 in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CORE) 2-for-1

• (MIDD) 3-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Lacker speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, Japan CPI, $29B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (BIG) analyst conference, (PM) investor day and the (CNO) investor day could impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.