Monday, June 02, 2014

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Putin Pausing as Russia Volatility Kills Trade-to-Invest. Vladimir Putin’s territorial ambitions are bumping up against financial markets. As the Russian president plots his next move on Ukraine, investors are giving his inner circle pause for thought. Since Putin annexed Crimea in March in the teeth of international outrage, Russian stocks have become the most volatile since 2009. Swings in the ruble against the euro are now the most extreme on record while expectations for fluctuations in the currency against its emerging-market peers are at the highest in two years.
  • Hagel Says China’s Actions in South China Sea Are Destabilizing. U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel today spelled out a series of Chinese actions in parts of the disputed South China Sea and said they were destabilizing the region. While China has said it wants a “sea of peace, friendship and cooperation,” in recent months it “has undertaken destabilizing, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea,” Hagel said in prepared remarks at an annual security conference in Singapore. 
  • Asian Stocks Advance. Asian stocks rose after a gauge of China’s manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in five months and the nation’s policymakers said they will cut the reserve requirement ratio for some banks. Karoon Gas Australia Ltd. (KAR) surged 51 percent in Sydney after saying it will sell energy permits for the Browse Basin, off Australia’s west coast, to Origin Energy Ltd. Makita Corp. led industrial shares higher, rising 4.9 percent in Tokyo. Dai-ichi Life Insurance Co. sank 4 percent, leading losses on the regional benchmark index, after the Nikkei reported the Japanese firm is preparing to buy Protective Life Corp. for more than 500 billion yen ($4.9 billion) to expand in the U.S. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 142.16 as of 9:26 a.m. in Tokyo, on course for the highest close in six months.
  • Gas Speculators Least Bullish of ’14 as Prices Retreat. Natural-gas stockpiles are recovering faster than estimated from a winter battering in the U.S., with prices now 30 percent below a peak in February. Hedge funds reduced their bets on a rally for a fifth week and to the lowest level since December, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.
  • Fresh Records Getting Stale With S&P 500 Volume at Six-Year Low. Lately, the higher the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index goes, the less investors care. About 1.8 billion shares traded each day in S&P 500 companies last month, the fewest since 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. When the gauge hit an all-time high on May 23, only about 20 of its 500 companies reached 52-week highs, the data show. That’s the lowest number in a year. When volume and breadth wane even as stocks surge, it’s a warning sign that has preceded losses in the past, according to Sundial Capital Research Inc. in Blaine, Minnesota. Hayes Miller, who helps oversee $57 billion at Baring Asset Management Inc., says the skepticism shows investors distrust a rally built on Federal Reserve stimulus. “Breadth is suggesting that the market is topping,” Miller, the Boston-based head of multi-asset allocation for Baring, said in a May 28 telephone interview. “This is not a good starting point for buying equities at this price. We all know that investors are induced into risk assets by central bank policies, which keep your safer options very unattractive.”
Wall Street Journal:
  • EPA to Seek 30% Cut in Emissions at Power Plants. Plan Sets in Motion Main Piece of President's Climate-Change Agenda. The Environmental Protection Agency will propose mandating power plants cut U.S. carbon-dioxide emissions 30% by 2030 from levels of 25 years earlier, according to people briefed on the rule, an ambitious target that marks the first-ever attempt at limiting such pollution. The rule-making proposal, to be unveiled Monday, sets in motion the main piece of President Barack Obama's climate-change agenda and is designed to give states and power companies flexibility in reaching the target. But it also will face...
Fox News:
  • Obama to announce controversial emissions limit on power plants. The Obama administration is set to announce a rule Monday to limit carbon emissions in thousands of fossil-fuel burning plants across the country, a cornerstone of President Obama’s climate-change agenda and his first-term promise to reduce such emissions by 17 percent by 2020. 
Zero Hedge:
Telegraph:
Der Spiegel:
  • U.K. Could Leave EU If Juncker Chosen, Cameron Cited by Spiegel. Prime Minister David Cameron warned German Chancellor Angela Merkel at European Union summit that choosing Jean-Claude Juncker as next European Commission president could set U.K. on path to EU exit, citing participants it doesn't identify. Cameron said on sidelines of May 27-28 summit in Brussels that Juncker victory could destabilize his govt to the point that proposed U.K. referendum on EU membership might have to be brought forward and would probably result in vote in favor of leaving.
  • Merkel Threatened to Vote Against Juncker at Summit. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron both want to block election of Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European Commission.
Xinhua:
  • China to React if Provoked Over Regional Disputes. Current situation in South China Sea stable but signs deserving attention have emerged, citing President Xi Jinping. China's stance on the issue is clear and consistent. "We will never stir up trouble, but will react in the necessary way to the provocations of countries involved," he said.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.50 -3.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 78.75 -1.5 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.48%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (CONN)/.73
  • (ZQK)/-.02
  • (KKD)/.23
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
  • Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI for May is estimated at 56.2 versus a prior estimate of 56.2 in April.
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Manufacturing for May is estimated to rise to 55.5 versus 54.9 in April.
  • ISM Prices Paid for May is estimated to rise to 57.0 versus 56.5 in April.
  • Construction Spending for April is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.2% gain in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Evans speaking, Eurozone PMI, HSBC China PMI, (AAPL) Worldwide Developers Conference, ASCO 2014, RBC Energy Conference, Goldman Lodging/Gaming/Restaurant Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, (QSII) analyst day and the (BCR) investor conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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