Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Japan’s Top Creditor Title at Risk as Surplus End Looms: Economy. Japan risks losing its position as the world’s top creditor nation, as dwindling savings become insufficient to finance growing public debt, a Bloomberg News survey of economists indicates. A run of current-account surpluses that drove Japan’s net asset position to the largest in the world starting in 1991 is set to reverse, according to 10 of 16 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, with nine projecting sustained deficits by the end of 2020. Japan had net assets of 325 trillion yen ($3.2 trillion) at the end of 2013, with China in second place with 208 trillion yen, according to Japan’s finance ministry. As an aging population draws down its savings, Japan will become more dependent on foreign creditors to finance its budget deficits and manage the world’s biggest debt burden.
  • China Inflation Accelerates to Fastest Pace in 4 Months on Food. China’s inflation accelerated in May to the fastest pace in four months on food costs, while a decline in factory-gate prices moderated. Consumer prices rose 2.5 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today in Beijing. That exceeded the median 2.4 percent estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The producer-price index fell 1.4 percent after a 2 percent decline the previous month.
  • Hackers Linked to China Seen Attacking U.S., European Industry. An additional hacking group linked to the People’s Liberation Army may have targeted U.S. defense and European satellite and aerospace industries since 2007, according to network security company CrowdStrike Inc. The group, known as Putter Panda, “is believed to hack into victim companies throughout the world in order to steal corporate trade secrets, primarily relating to the satellite, aerospace and communication industries,” according to an undated report from the company released on June 9. 
  • Asian Stocks Pare Gain as Casinos Retreat in Hong Kong. Asian stocks pared their advance as Japanese shares fell on a stronger yen and casino operators slid in Hong Kong after Macau moved to restrict money flows from China. Oil was near the highest price since March before a report on American stockpiles, and corn extended drops. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.1 percent by 11:45 a.m. in Tokyo after closing at the highest since Oct. 22 yesterday.
  • Three Strategists Share This Concern About Stocks. (video)
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Banks Cut Credit to Chinese Metals Traders. Alleged Fraud Being Investigated. Some banks are becoming cautious about issuing financial guarantees to Chinese metals-trading firms amid an investigation into alleged fraud involving the use of commodities to obtain multiple loans. The operator of Qingdao port, on China's eastern coast, confirmed on Monday that Chinese authorities were conducting a probe into allegations of fraud relating to aluminum and copper products stored at the port.
  • Big Auto Turns on Tesla(TSLA). Tesla has been fighting a running battle with car dealer groups around the country, many of whom have pushed against the company’s decision to sell its vehicles directly to customers through its own showrooms, rather than the traditional option of going through a dealer. In many states, the dealer groups have appealed to legislators claiming the company is breaching franchise laws that require cars to be sold through dealers, a claim Tesla rejects. 
  • VA Halted Visits to Troubled Hospitals. Change Came as Growing Number of Facilities Had High Death Rates. The Department of Veterans Affairs stopped sending teams of turnaround experts to underperforming hospitals at the same time a growing number of VA facilities showed consistently high death and complication rates, internal agency records and interviews reveal. Starting in 2011, when the VA instituted a new system to track performance standards, five VA hospitals notched consistently poor scores on a range of critical-care outcomes,... 
  • 'Dark Pools' Face New SEC Probe. Venue Operated by Barclays Is Among the Targets.
  • GoDaddy Files for IPO. Internet Company GoDaddy Plans to Raise Up to $100 Million in IPO.
  • Boko Haram Kidnaps More Girls in Nigeria. Abductions Near Town Where Students Were Grabbed Reflect Lack of Protection.
  • The Latest Student-Loan Charade. Having induced $1 trillion in debt, Democrats now want to write it off. You can tell an election is coming, because President Obama is promising more student-loan relief to young people who are growing less enthralled with his economic record. The latest exercise unveiled Monday is also supposed to make these young people forget the loan burden that earlier free lunches supposedly provided. The taxpayer losses will come on some other President's watch. Specifically, Mr. Obama announced an expansion of the burgeoning disaster known as his Pay As You Earn program. This gift from taxpayers caps...
CNBC: 
  • 4 in 10 millennials overwhelmed by debt: Study. Four in 10 millennials are overwhelmed by debt, with almost half spending at least 50 percent of their monthly paycheck paying off debt, a new study by Wells Fargo found. More than half—56 percent—reported living paycheck to paycheck.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • Fund managers fret about valuations in wake of ECB rate cut. When the European Central Bank put its economy-boosting stimulus plan into high gear last week, it sent European stock prices to six-year highs. But mutual fund managers who might be expected to like that are instead voicing a new worry: The policy leaves them without enough reasonably priced stocks to buy.
Telegraph: 
China Securities Journal:
  • China to Cap Energy Consumption for Local Govts. China will cap local government coal consumption and other energy use to meet 2011-2015 emission reduction targets, citing NDRC Vice Chairman Xie Zhenhua as saying. China will also stop new heavy-polluting projects for local governments that don't meet emission reduction targets, Xie is cited as saying.
Evening Recommendations
Jefferies:
  • Rated (PEP) Buy, target $102. 
  • Rated (MNST) Buy, target $82.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.50 -.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 75.0 unch.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.21%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.15%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (CBK)/.02
  • (ULTA)/.74
  • (UNFI)/.73
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May is estimated to rise to 95.5 versus 95.2 in April.
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTs Job Openings for April are estimated to rise to 4038 versus 4014 in March.
  • Wholesale Inventories for April are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.1% gain in March.
  • Wholesale Sales for April are estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.4% gain in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • (SXL) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China inflation data, UK industrial production, $28B 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, Morgan Stanley Financials Conference, Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, (DDD) analyst meeting and the (MET) investor conference could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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