Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Iranian Commander Rejects Nuclear Inspections at Military Bases. International inspectors won’t be allowed access to military bases in a deal with world powers to curb Tehran’s nuclear program, a top Iranian commander said. “They will not even be permitted to inspect the most normal military site in their dreams,” said Brigadier General Hossein Salami, deputy head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to the state-run Press TV news channel. “Visiting a military base by a foreign inspector would mean the occupation of our land because all our defense secrets are there,” Salami said. “Even talking about the subject means national humiliation.”   

• Draghi Warning Unheeded as Euro’s Best Streak in a Year Stalls. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is warning investors not to bet against the euro. They don’t seem to have gotten the message. The euro’s longest winning streak in a year stalled Monday as regional leaders wrangled with a defiant Greece over how to avoid a default. Draghi said in Washington Saturday that while the situation is “urgent,” it’s premature to speculate about a Greek exit from the currency union. Bets by hedge funds and other large speculators for the euro to decline against the dollar remained near a record high in the latest data from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

• Fed Crisis-Liquidity Function Reviewed for Potential Use by IMF. IMF member nations are discussing how to expand the lender’s mandate to include keeping markets liquid during a financial crisis, a role played by a group of major central banks led by the Federal Reserve in 2008. The International Monetary Fund’s main committee of central bank governors and finance ministers is working on ways for the fund to provide a better financial “safety net” during a crisis, said Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who last month finished a four-year term as chairman of the panel. Singapore remains a member of the International Monetary and Financial Committee.

• World Braces for Taper Tantrum II Even as Yellen Soothes Nerves. The world economy is about to discover if to be forewarned by the Federal Reserve is to be forearmed. Two years since the Fed triggered a selloff of their assets in the so-called “taper tantrum,” the finance chiefs of emerging markets left Washington meetings of the International Monetary Fund praising Chair Janet Yellen for the way she is signaling plans to raise U.S. interest rates. 

• Metals, Aussie Rise on China Stimulus as Stocks Swing; Oil Gains. Industrial metals rallied with commodity-producers’ currencies, while Chinese money-market rates fell to a two-year low after the central bank cut the amount of reserves banks need by the most since the global financial crisis. Oil climbed with U.S. index futures. Copper and zinc futures rose at least 0.7 percent by 12:03 p.m. in Tokyo, as the currencies of Australia, New Zealand and Canada strengthened at least 0.3 percent versus the dollar. Chinese interest-rate swaps slid to the lowest level since 2012, while the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated after advancing more than 6 percent last week.

• Nigeria, Algeria See Oil Prices Staying Low for a Long Time. Oil prices are likely to stay low for a long time after falling more than 40 percent in the past year, said officials from two OPEC nations. Nigeria and Algeria both warned that oil prices, currently at around $60 a barrel, probably won’t recover to the 2011-2013 level of more than $100 a barrel. “You forecast at your own risk, but it seems to me that we should be regarding this as a permanent shock,” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the Nigerian finance minister, said on a panel discussion Sunday in Washington near the end of the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings. “We should prepare our economies for that eventuality.”

• Copper Bulls Backing Away as China Woes Trump Supply Concerns. Investors are backing away from copper after the biggest two-month rally since 2012. The problem is that demand is slowing in China, which accounts for about half of global copper use. Producers including Freeport-McMoRan Inc. say Chinese buying hasn’t picked up as it normally does at this time of year, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA are among banks predicting lower prices.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Republican Presidential Candidates Spar Over Party’s Future. New Hampshire gathering exposes split over whether to broaden GOP’s appeal or rally the base. The biggest gathering yet of Republican presidential hopefuls this past weekend sharpened divisions in the broad field of candidates over the path to return the GOP to the White House, making the 2016 primary race a moment for the party to define its national identity.

• Investors Grow Wary of Emerging-Market Debt. Fear of defaults grows as developing economies slow and dollar has climbed. Emerging-market bonds are being submerged in investors’ worries. Facing rising corporate defaults from Brazil to China to Ukraine, some portfolio managers are selling debt issued by emerging-market companies.

• Whatever the Ayatollah Wants. President Obama keeps giving and giving and giving. Give Ayatollah Ali Khamenei credit for knowing his opposition. Two weeks ago the Supreme Leader declared that Western sanctions had to be lifted immediately as a condition of a nuclear deal. And sure enough, on Friday President Obama said Iran would get significant sanctions relief immediately upon signing a deal. The Ayatollah knows that Mr. Obama wants an agreement with Iran so much that there’s almost no concession the President...

• The ObamaCare Effect: Hospital Monopolies. Last year saw 95 hospital mergers and acquisitions, a frenzy encouraged by the Affordable Care Act.

Fox News: 

• White House condemns ISIS video that purportedly shows killing of Ethiopian Christians in Libya. The White House Sunday evening condemned a video purportedly showing a mass execution of Ethiopian Christians in Libya by terrorists affiliated with Islamic State. "We express our condolences to the families of the victims and our support to the Ethiopian government and people as they grieve for their fellow citizens," National Security Council spokesperson Bernadette Meehan said in a statement. "That these terrorists killed these men solely because of their faith lays bare the terrorists' vicious, senseless brutality."

CNBC: 

• China cracks down on golf, the 'sport for millionaires'. President Xi Jinping's crackdown on vice and corruption in China has gone after drugs, gambling, prostitution, ill-gotten wealth and overflowing banquet tables. Now it has turned to a less obvious target: golf.

• These iron ore producers may get shafted: Goldman(GS). (video) Iron ore's price plunge is likely to start claiming corporate casualties among the industry's smaller players, Goldman Sachs said. 

• If nobody likes bonds, who’s buying?

Zero Hedge:

• One Last Look At The Real Economy Before It Implodes - Part 5.

• Is The Student Debt Bubble About To Witness Its 2007 Moment? 

• 300 US Paratroopers Arrive In Ukraine After Russia Says Its Missiles Will Target NATO Member States.

• Japan's "Over 65" Rise To Record 33 Million, More Than Double Number Of Children. (graph)

• Congress Is Trying To Reauthorize Key Patriot Act Provisions by Sneaking it Into 'USA Freedom Act'.

• 5 Things To Ponder: Aircraft Erudition. (graph)

• China's Bursting Bubble + Grexit Trouble = Dow Rubble. (graph)

• Well That's Never Happened Before - Exhibit 1. (graph)

• The Greek "White Knight" Emerges: Putin To Give Athens €5 Billion For Advance Gas Pipeline Fees. (graph)

• Has The Fed Already Lost? (graph)

• China Sees Largest Capital Outflow In Three Years Amid Currency Conundrum. 

• This Technical Signaled The Last Two Market Crashes And It Just Happened. (graph)

• More Hillary Cronyism Revealed: Cisco(CSCO) Used Clinton Foundation To Cover-up Human Rights Abuse In China.

• What Bernanke's New Employer Had To Say About Him Just 2 Years Ago.

• "More Than Half Of All Global Government Bonds Are Yielding 1% Or Less". (graph)

• Why The Record Drop In Chinese House Prices Suggests Beijing Is Already In A Recession. (graph)

• The Global Liquidity Squeeze Has Begun.

• 2007 All Over Again? Let Us Count The Ways (And Remember What Happened Then). (graph)

• Well That Hasn't Happened Before - Exhibit 2.

• China Cuts Reserve Ratio Most Since 2008 In Scramble To Preserve Equity Bubble, Boost Economy. (graph)

• Despite Urges And Threats, Greece Remains Defiant, Won't "Budge On Red Lines" Even As Russia Denies Gas Deal.

• Well That Hasn't Happened Before - Exhibit 3. (graph) We have never, ever, seen a larger Fed-fueled, mal-investment boom in private construction...

• Central Bankers Next Test Of Omnipotence May Be Coming.

• Student Debt Accounts For Nearly Half Of US Government "Assets". (graph)

• Draghi Tells Euro Shorts To "Make His Day", Again. (graph)

• Bond/Utility Divergence Flashes Warning Sign For S&P 500. (graph)

• Is The Credibility Bubble Bursting?

Business Insider:

• Australia arrests 5 men on terror plot charges.

• Iran wants OPEC to to make room for it to enter the market.

• Europe is publicly endorsing renewable energy, but it's quietly moving towards fracking.

• Greece's nightmare is here.

• How teens are spending money, what they like, and where they shop.

• Finance officials are warning of big risks tied to the global economic recovery.

• ISIS shot and beheaded 30 Christians in Libya.

• Hillary Clinton is reworking her positions to appeal to progressive Democrats.

• An Iran nuclear deal could cause problems for the US with its Sunni allies in the Gulf.

• People don't believe China's growth figures, and the truth about the economy could be far worse.

• Greek finance minister: If Greece leaves Eurozone, others could follow.

• The IMF has a warning on volatility in global markets that's 'not for the faint-hearted'.

• Almost 4 years after MF Global failed, Jon Corzine is reportedly getting ready for a comeback.

Reuters:

• U.S. regulators may recommend testing food for glyphosate residues. U.S. regulators may start testing food products for residues of the world's most widely used herbicide, the Environmental Protection Agency told Reuters on Friday, as public concern rises over possible links to disease. Glyphosate, the active ingredient in Roundup herbicide, has come under intense scrutiny since a research unit of the World Health Organization reported last month it was classifying glyphosate as "probably carcinogenic to humans." The herbicide is considered safe by the EPA, as well as many foreign regulatory agencies, including in the European Union.

• DoubleLine's Gundlach says U.S. high-yield credit could face crisis. The U.S. high-yield credit market, which has benefited from massive flows in the last few years from investors looking for higher returns, could unravel in about two years after the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, DoubleLine Capital chief executive Jeffrey Gundlach said on Sunday. "I think that's the next bond market crisis," Gundlach told TV program Wall Street Week.

Telegraph: 

• How sleepy Finland could tear apart the euro project. Europe's biggest cheerleader for austerity is heading to the polls, and its stance on Greece threatens to catalyse a break-up of the union.

• Caveat creditor as IMF chiefs mull unpayable debts. The Fund's Spring meeting has been dominated by the dangers of a toxic mix of sky-high debt ratios and old-age populations. The message? Something is badly out of kilter in the world.

• Europe ready for Grexit contagion as Athens gets closer to Russian cash. Mario Draghi sends warning shot that Greek threats to unleash mayhem will not give way to leniencey.

Xinhua:

• PBOC's Zhou Says Slower Growth More Sustainable. Slowdown in China's GDP growth to 7% in first quarter leaves more room for structural adjustments and shift in growth mode, citing People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan who made comments in Washington. Slower expansion can help nation achieve more balanced, more sustained growth, Zhou says

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.5 +5.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 61.75 +2.5 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures +.40%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (STI)/.72

• (HAL)/.36

• (MTB)/1.76

• (RCL)/.14

• (HAS)/.07

• (MS)/.78

• (IBM)/2.81

• (BXS)/.33

• (SANM)/.53

• (BRO)/.40

• (LRCX)/1.30

• (STLD)/.14

• (BMI)/.42

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March is estimated to rise to .1 versus -.11 in February.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone construction report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.