Thursday, April 23, 2015

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Putin’s Feed-Russia-First Push Has Global Grain Markets on Edge. Vladimir Putin is determined to make sure that Russians don’t run out of affordable bread, even if it means a few bankrupt farmers and a disrupted grain market. The country that last year was the fourth-largest wheat exporter is now taxing all overseas sales of the grain. Shipments dropped by more than half, and the loss of income is squeezing already thin profits for growers. While Putin’s move kept more wheat at home, farmers have cut back spending to stay solvent, including using less fertilizer and pesticide.
  • We're Just Learning the True Cost of China's Debt. (video) The true cost of the debt that China's real estate developers peddled to eager international investors during a five-year property boom is now becoming clear. Having found themselves shut out of local bond and loan markets seven years ago, a band of developers began looking elsewhere for funds. First an initial public offering, and then a dollar bond sale. It became a well-trodden path. By 2010, a core group of four -- Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Renhe Commercial Holdings Co., Glorious Property Holdings Ltd. -- raised a total of $5.6 billion. On Monday, Kaisa buckled under $10.5 billion of debt and defaulted. 
  • Sands China Shares Drop as Macau Downturn Causes Forecasts Miss. Sands China Ltd. dropped to a month low in Hong Kong trading after the Macau casino operator reported worse-than-expected earnings and its billionaire chairman Sheldon Adelson said he’s uncertain about the industry’s recovery. The stock fell 3.5 percent to HK$31.45 as of 9:35 a.m., the lowest intraday level since March 20. The other five casino companies in the city also fell with SJM Holdings Ltd. and Wynn Macau Ltd. losing more than 2.3 percent.
  • Asian Stocks Follow U.S. Shares Higher Ahead of China PMI Report. Asian stocks rose for a third day, after U.S. equities climbed toward records, as Japanese shares gained on a weaker yen and investors awaited a private report on Chinese manufacturing. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 154.99 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo.
  • Qualcomm(QCOM) Forecasts Fall Short After Samsung Business Loss. Qualcomm Inc., whose chips power most of the world’s smartphones, forecast fiscal third-quarter sales and profit that may miss estimates as customers turn to rivals for key components or make their own parts. Net income in the current period will be 67 cents to 82 cents a share on revenue of $5.4 billion to $6.2 billion, the San Diego-based company said Wednesday in a statement. On average, analysts had estimated earnings of 99 cents on sales of $6.46 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Wall Street Journal: 
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • Chipmaker Texas Instruments(TXN) forecasts revenue below estimates. Texas Instruments Inc forecast current-quarter revenue below analysts' expectations, citing weak demand for its chips from communication equipment and consumer electronics markets and a strong dollar. Shares of the company, which also reported lower-than-expected profit and revenue for the first quarter, fell 7 percent in extended trading on Wednesday.
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.5 -.25 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures -.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (MMM)/1.93
  • (ALK)/1.10
  • (ALXN)/1.31
  • (MO)/.62
  • (BAX)/.88
  • (BBT)/.70
  • (BEAV)/.73
  • (CAB)/.36
  • (CAM)/.72
  • (CAT)/1.36
  • (DHR)/.93
  • (DPZ)/.80
  • (DOW)/.75
  • (LLY)/.74
  • (FCX)/.-06
  • (GM)/.96
  • (HSY)/1.16
  • (IR)/.32
  • (JAH)/.06
  • (JCI)/.71
  • (NUE)/.14
  • (PTEN)/.04
  • (BTU)/-.32
  • (PEP)/.79
  • (PG)/.92
  • (PHM)/.20
  • (RTN)/1.40
  • (LUV)/.65
  • (SWK)/1.08
  • (UAL)/1.44
  • (ALTR)/.32
  • (AMZN)/-.12
  • (ELY)/.28
  • (COF)/1.87
  • (CB)/1.48
  • (ETFC)/.24
  • (ETH)/.18
  • (GOOG)/6.61
  • (JNPR)/.31
  • (KLAC)/.76
  • (MSFT)/.53
  • (NEM)/.23
  • (SBUX)/.33
Economic Releases
8:30 AM EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 287K versus 294K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2290K versus 2268K prior.
9:45 am EST
  • The Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI for April is estimated at 55.7 versus 55.7 in March.
10:00 am EST
  • New Home Sales for March are estimated to fall to 515K versus 539K in February.
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is estimated to rise to -2.0 versus -4.0 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (SCHW) Business Update could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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