Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 

Bloomberg:

• China Stocks Extend Biggest Plunge Since 2007 on Support Doubts. Chinese stocks slumped for a fourth day, extending the steepest rout since 2007, on concern the government is paring back support for the market. The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 3.9 percent to 3,085.49 at 10:21 a.m. local time, heading for the lowest close in eight months. The gauge plunged 8.5 percent on Monday, following last week’s 12 percent decline. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of Chinese shares in Hong Kong climbed 2.1 percent from its lowest level since March 2014. Speculation around the government’s intentions has escalated since Aug. 14, after China’s securities regulator signaled authorities will pare back the campaign to prop up share prices as volatility falls. Officials should wind down the stock market support program even if prices continue to decline, according to a front-page commentary in the state-run Economic Information Daily on Tuesday. “It’s panic selling and an issue of confidence,” said Wei Wei, an analyst at Huaxi Securities Co. in Shanghai. “The government won’t step in to rescue the market again as it’s a global sell-off and it’s spreading everywhere now. It’s not going to work this time.”

• Bear Grip Tightens on Emerging Stocks as Half of 30 Markets Wilt. One after another, stock markets in the developing world are sinking into bear territory. Fifteen of the 30 largest equity markets among emerging economies have extended losses from their peaks to 20 percent or more, fulfilling traders’ definition of a bear market. China and Russia have led the pack, tumbling more than 30 percent each. The remainder are either in a correction, or on the brink. Emerging markets are reeling after China’s yuan devaluation Aug. 11 sparked concern the world’s second-largest economy will slow further, undermining demand for oil, copper and other raw materials from countries including Brazil, Russia and South Africa. The rout comes as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising borrowing costs for the first time in almost a decade, after central banks worldwide boosted stimulus measures to patch up economies following the global financial crisis. While Russia and China have led losses in emerging Europe and Asia, Egypt has lost the most among markets in the Middle East and Africa. In Latin America, Peru is hardest hit, down more 43 percent in the past year and outpacing Brazil which entered a bear market last week. Malaysia, Thailand and Dubai are on the brink of surpassing the 20 percent threshold, while 10 countries including India and South Africa have lost more than 10 percent, thus entering corrections.

• China Strong Enough to Weather End of Stock Support, Paper Says. China should wind down its stock market support program even if prices continue to fall, according to a commentary in a state-run official economic daily. The front-page commentary in the Economic Information Daily sought Tuesday to reassure investors the Chinese economy wasn’t “that bad” and argued that disasters like the Asian financial crisis or the sub-prime mortgage debacle wouldn’t repeat. “It’s not good for the recovery of the economy to bring back the focus of quantitative easing to the stock market.”  

• China RRR Cut Alone Wouldn't Shift Market Sentiment. (video)

• China Stock ‘Fear’ Dwarfs Greek Panic Amid Unknowns, Nordea Says. What scares people about China is all the things they don’t know about the world’s second-biggest economy. That’s according to Mathias Leijon, chief investment officer for equities at Nordea Investment Management. He says the market damage triggered by China’s decision to devalue the yuan earlier this month will be much bigger than the disturbances caused by the Greek debt crisis. “Greece wasn’t big enough to actually have an impact,” Leijon said by phone Monday. “But with China, given we don’t really know what the real growth numbers are, we don’t know the true underlying leverage numbers and the shadow banking system.”

• Norway’s Richest Man Says He’s ‘Very Worried’ About China. John Fredriksen, the billionaire who made his fortune investing in crude tankers, said he’s “very worried” about the turmoil spreading from China and the potential fallout on global shipping markets. “It seems there are big problems in China,” Fredriksen said in an interview in Oslo on Monday. “That’s at least not good for the shipping market.” “For our situation it’s good for our tankers,” he said. “But for our oil rigs it’s negative.” The drilling rig market is facing lower demand from oil producers after crude prices collapsed last year. The decline in demand comes as new rigs enter the market, boosting oversupply after a decade of rising offshore investments. “There will be a mega consolidation in the rig market,” Fredriksen said. “It must happen, will happen. Within the next year there will be consolidation.” 

• Big-Winner Australia Shudders as China Turmoil Darkens Outlook. Australia, the world’s most China-dependent developed economy, is looking on in dread at the prospect of weaker demand for its exports that threatens growth and could undermine the government’s re-election program. Just three months ago, Treasurer Joe Hockey hailed Australians as “the big winners” of the China relationship when he released his annual budget. Hockey predicted export demand would rise further, and noted each year Australia sent enough iron ore to China to build the equivalent of Sydney Harbour bridges over the nearly 2,500 miles to Perth and back.

• Korean Leaders Back Off the Insults, Defusing Tensions. Negotiators from North Korea and South Korea reached an agreement involving concessions on both sides to defuse a military standoff that had taken tensions on the peninsula to their highest level in years. The regime in Pyongyang agreed to lift its “semi-state of war” and expressed regret over landmine blasts that maimed two South Korean soldiers, while the government in Seoul said it’d stop propaganda broadcasts across the heavily fortified border.

• China Rout Accelerates in U.S. Trading Amid Record ETF Selloff. The largest U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds tracking yuan-denominated equities fell the most on record as China’s worst stock selloff since 2007 accelerated in New York trading amid questions over the government’s ability to support a flagging economy. The Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF tumbled 14 percent to a eight-month low of $30.11 on Monday, while the Market Vectors ChinaAMC A-Share ETF retreated 15 percent. The declines exceeded an 8.5 percent drop earlier in the trading day on the Shanghai Composite where more than 800 stocks fell by the daily 10 percent limit. The ETF selloff may indicate investors expect further weakness in the A-share market, according to Ankur Patel of R-Squared Macro Management. 

• The Richest Guy in Asia Loses $3.6 Billion in the Market Rout. Asia’s richest person lost $3.6 billion on Monday, the most among all billionaires worldwide, as China’s stock markets had the biggest plunge since 2007 and a wave of selling spread across the globe. Wang Jianlin saw $2 billion wiped from his stake in Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co., according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, after the Hong Kong-listed property developer tumbled 17 percent to its lowest level since it went public in December. Wang also lost nearly $1 billion from his Shenzhen-traded Wanda Cinema Line Co., which fell by the exchange-exposed limit of 10 percent on Monday. His fortune stood at $31.2 billion after the decline.

• Malaysia’s Stock Index Heads for Bear Market Amid Ringgit Slump. Malaysia’s stocks fell, with the benchmark index poised to enter a bear market, as a global rout deepened and concern grew over the nation’s economic growth. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index lost as much as 1.9 percent to 1,503.68 at 9:05 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur. The gauge has fallen more than 20 percent from its 2014 high. The ringgit traded little changed. Foreign funds have dumped more than $3 billion of the nation’s shares this year and the currency is at a 17-year low as political uncertainty clouds the outlook for an economy rocked by plunging oil prices and an emerging-market selloff. Prime Minister Najib Razak is grappling with allegations of financial irregularities at a state investment company, and facing accusations of impropriety after it was disclosed that political donations ended up in his private accounts in 2013.

• Kiwi's Biggest Dislocation in 30 Years Flags Risk of More Losses. The collapse in the kiwi came just before the U.S. stock market opened sharply lower amid panic about China’s share selloff and an economic slowdown that drove commodities to a 16-year low. While the Australian dollar also fell, its drop wasn’t as severe as the kiwi’s and there wasn’t a similar widening in the bid-ask spread.

• Asian Stocks Reverse Losses as Banks, Tech Shares Advance. Asian stocks rose, reversing early losses to rebound from the lowest level in two years, as banks in Japan and Australia rallied and technology companies advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7 percent to 126.73 as of 10:03 a.m. in Hong Kong. The gauge slumped as much as 2.2 percent on Tuesday before rallying, and closed Monday at the lowest since 2013 on the cusp of a bear market.

• BofA Says Collapsing Oil Drags U.S. LNG Exports Down With It. Plummeting crude oil prices have dimmed prospects for soon-to-start U.S. liquefied natural gas exports, Bank of America Corp. said in a note to clients Monday. The gap between U.S. and global prices for the fuel has narrowed as oil’s collapse reduced the cost of crude-linked LNG contracts in Asia and Europe, Max Denery, an analyst at the bank in New York, said in the report. Oil in London has tumbled 25 percent this year, falling below $45 a barrel Monday for the first time since 2009, while U.S. gas has dropped 8.3 percent.

• Commodities Slump to 16-Year Low on Mining, Oil Stocks. A measure of returns from commodities sank to its lowest since 1999 and shares in resource companies tumbled by the most since the financial crisis on concern that a slowing Chinese economy will exacerbate supply gluts.

• The Technical Damage Done by Today's Market Selloff. (video)

• Hedge Fund ‘Hotels’ Sting Managers by Losing Up to 42% in Week. The cost of staying in “hedge fund hotels” has been soaring. Hedge fund hotels -- companies in which these firms hold a combined stake of at least 25 percent -- suffered declines of as much as 42 percent in the recent stock market rout. Below we highlight the five biggest such losers in the past week among companies with at least $1 billion in market value, a period in which the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 10 percent. One caveat: the firms’ holdings are generally as of June 30 and may have changed.

• Salesforce’s(CRM) Benioff Sees Danger for ‘Unicorns’ as Market Slumps. (video) Salesforce.com Inc. Chief Executive Officer Marc Benioff said that startups who prioritize high valuations over building their businesses may struggle in tougher market conditions. “It’s dangerous for these entrepreneurs that they’re more focused on their market cap than on their customers,” Benioff said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Monday. “When I see them get more focused on being a unicorn than being a company with a high level of customer satisfaction -- a high level of employee satisfaction and company that’s giving back to the community -- then I know it’s a problem.”

• Property brokers plunge amid shadow of real estate slowdown. CBRE Group Inc.(CBG) and Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.(JLL), the global titans of property services, lost 8 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively, this month through last week, reversing sharp gains compared with real estate investment trusts and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

Wall Street Journal:

• Investors Grasp for Answers Amid Wild Stock Rout. Investors try to assess whether selloff is just a short-term pullback or a signal of deeper trouble.

• Historic Profits for High-Frequency Trading Firm Today. ‘Our firm is made for this kind of market,’ Virtu Financial CEO says. Virtu Financial Inc., one of the world’s largest high-frequency trading firms, was on track to have one of its biggest and most profitable days in history Monday amid a tumultuous 24 hours for world markets, according to its chief executive. 

• Global Markets Set for Another Bruising Day — Live Blog.

• For All Its Heft, China’s Economy Is a Black Box. China’s economy is difficult to assess amid murky politics, unreliable data and opaque decision making. For sheer clout, China’s economy outweighs every country in the world save the U.S. But on transparency, it remains distinctly an emerging market, with murky politics, unreliable data and opaque decision making. This veil dims the understanding of China’s economy and is an important reason its recent slowdown has produced so much turmoil.

• Risks Grow for Slow but Steady U.S. Expansion. Market turmoil and China’s troubles threaten to undermine outlook for world’s largest economy.

• The Clinton Plan to Distort Market Signals. Hillary’s attacks on ‘short-termism’ don’t reflect an understanding of what drives investing. Hillary Clinton’s big economic idea—ending corporate “short-termism,” as she calls it—will do more harm than good. On the campaign trail she rails against American corporations and the mysterious “tyranny of today’s earnings report.” Her solution is to raise capital-gains taxes and lengthen stockholding periods. Imagine anxiously waiting to unload during this month’s global selloff because of a holding period. Chalk it up as another misguided effort that will distort the information investors and companies rely...

Fox News:

• Amid Biden deliberations, WH leaves door open to Obama primary endorsement. (video) The White House left the door open Monday to President Obama endorsing a candidate in the 2016 Democratic primary, raising the tantalizing possibility of Obama choosing between two administration powerhouses as Vice President Biden mulls a run against Hillary Clinton. The prospect of a Biden-vs.-Clinton rerun already is said to be dividing current and former Obama administration staffers looking at whom to support -- and potentially work for -- in 2016. Clinton was the obvious choice until her personal email scandal and problematic poll numbers stirred talk about Biden, whose supporters already are pulling together a team for a possible run.

• Activists say ISIS destroys temple at ancient Palmyra site. (video) Islamic State (ISIS) militants have destroyed a temple at Syria's ancient ruins of Palmyra, activists said Sunday, realizing the worst fears archaeologists had for the 2,000-year-old Roman-era city after the extremists seized it and beheaded a local scholar.

CNBC:

• People 'hooked on heroin of QE': Ex-Fed's Fisher. (video) Markets may be selling off amid fears of slowing global growth and the possibility of a September rate hike but the Fed couldn't care less, according to former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. "I don't think there is a single member of the FOMC that's going to react to one day's market activity," Fisher told CNBC's "Closing Bell" in an interview, noting that the economy went unscathed after stocks entered substantial corrections in 1962 and 1967. "It does demonstrate that people are hooked on the heroin of quantitative easing," he said, commenting on the market's reactions to supposed Fed clues. "Nobody on that committee would like to see that continue, they'd like to find the right exit point and they'll see what it is."

• Anatomy of '1,000 flash crashes': What went wrong. (video) Monday's stock market action was bound to be messy, but it was made even worse by a major technical pile-up just as the session got underway. Dubbed by one trader "1,000 flash crashes," the market opened to tumult in which multiple stocks and in particular exchange-traded funds cascaded lower as orders failed to get filled and prices went ballistic. In all, 1,278 so-called circuit breakers—trading halts imposed when shares fall to various levels—were tripped across the major exchanges as the Dow Jones industrial average surrendered more than 1,000 points early on, according to New York Stock Exchange officials. The number of tripped breakers was believed to be a record, with ARCA's 999 the most, with the Nasdaq next at 194. A typical day sees fewer than 10.

Zero Hedge:

• Chinese Stocks Are Crashing; Yuan Devalues, Deposit Rate Spikes To Record High, Japan Denies "G7 Response" Planned. (graph)

• Forget Rate Hikes: Bridgewater Says QE4 Is Next; Warns World Is Approaching End Of Debt Supercycle.

• Is This The Next Dollar Peg To Fall? (graph)

• Coming To America? China Censors Bad Market Talk Amid Meltdown.

• Brazil's Economy Is Now A Job Destruction Machine. (graph)

• Paul Craig Roberts: Central Banks Have Become A Corrupting Force.

• Return To Junk Status "Only A Matter Of Time" For Latin America's Most Important Economy: Barclays. (graph)

• Marc Faber: The Global Economy Is Entering An Epic Slump.

• The Ghost Of 1997 Beckons, Can Asia Escape? Morgan Stanley, BofA Weigh In. (graph)

• Behold: Insanity. (graph)

• The Volatility Of Volatility Has Never (Ever) Been Higher. (graph)

• "Black Monday" Brings Global Market Rout, Investors Mourn The Death Of Central Bank Omnipotence. (graph)

Business Insider:

• We have reason to believe the unthinkable is happening to China's president.

• The market is setting up for a 'September swoon'.

• Here's how bad it's gotten for energy stocks.

• Here's what happened during the last 10 US bear markets. (graph)

• The natural gas industry has been destroyed by the price drop.

• FED'S LOCKHART: I expect a rate hike 'sometime this year'.

• Democrats are openly speculating about an election without Hillary Clinton.

• Emerging market currencies are crashing because of the drop in oil prices.

Shanghai Securities News: 

• China Ratio Cut Won't Add Liquidity to Stocks: PBOC Academic. Chinese stock market investors should understand that the central bank won't cut the reserve requirement ratio solely to add liquidity to stock market, Wang Yong, a professor at the People's Bank of China's Zhengzhou training school, writes. Impact on China from another financial crisis would likely be larger than what it experienced in 1997 and 2008, Wang said. Capital markets can't rely on support policies as a market rescue might be more difficult than ever before, he said.

Securities Daily:

• China Stock Market Rout Hurts Confidence, Threatens Reforms. Monday stock rout is destroying stock investors' confidence and creating "severe" problems, a front-page commentary says.

Economic Information Daily:

• China Should Wind Down Govt Bailout of Stock Markets. The Chinese govt should gradually wind down its bailout of the stock markets even if the prices fall, a front-page commentary says. Bailout measures are intended to prevent financial risks rather than lift stock indexes, according to the commentary written by Xu Gao. Some market declines can help deleverage and reduce risks, he wrote.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +1.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.0 -8.75 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 87.0 +6.75 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures +2.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.77%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (BMO)/1.73

• (BBY)/.34

• (DSW)/.42

• (SAFM)/2.76

• (PLCE)/-.33

• (TOL)/.49

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in May. 

• The 2Q House Price Index is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.3% gain in 1Q.

• The S&P/CS 20 City MoM for June is estimated to rise +.13% versus a -.18% decline in May.
  

9:45 am EST

• The Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for August is estimated to fall to 55.1 versus 55.7 in July.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for July are estimated to rise to 510K versus 482K in June.

• Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to rise to 93.4 versus 90.9 in July.

• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for August is estimated to fall to 10.0 versus 13.0 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone GDP report, Congressional Budget Office update, weekly US retail sales reports and the $26B 2Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.