Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Citi: The Growth Model of Emerging Markets Is ‘Broken’. (video) Chinese growth and strong global trade created uniquely favorable conditions that aren't likely to repeat themselves anytime soon. Strategists at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have been calling the bottom in emerging markets. But Citigroup feels differently. In a year-ahead note, Chief Economist Willem Buiter says it's impossible to declare "EM is 'out of the woods'" just yet thanks to two major risks. The first is an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, which is now widely expected to occur next month. Such a move seems likely to knock back some of investment that has been flowing into emerging markets in recent years. "Higher U.S. rates do still threaten capital flows to EM, largely because some of the ‘excess’ inflow to EM in the past five years will have had cyclical characteristics, and could therefore be vulnerable as U.S. rates rise," Buiter writes in the note.
• Macau's Third-Quarter Economy Sinks 24% Compared to a Year Ago. Macau’s economy contracted a fifth straight quarter as the world’s largest center of gambling was pummeled by an economic slowdown in China and the government’s attack on corruption which scared off high-rollers. The Chinese city, which relies on gamblers for about two-thirds of economic output, saw GDP tumble 24.2 percent in the three months through September, easing from the 26.4 percent drop in the second quarter, government data released Monday showed. 
• Aberdeen's Emerging-Market Pain. As the market turmoil that started in China washes up in Scotland's granite city, 2016 is shaping up to be a crunch year for Aberdeen Asset Management. Aberdeen spelled out in gory detail on Monday how its Asian and emerging markets-focused funds are hemorrhaging cash. Net outflows accelerated to almost 13 billion pounds ($19.5 billion) in the three months through September, bringing the total for the fiscal year to almost 34 billion pounds. Aberdeen said the industry is experiencing "the worst quarter for outflows from this asset class since the global financial crisis.''
• Euro heads for biggest monthly loss since March on ECB outlook. The euro headed for its biggest monthly decline since March as economists unanimously forecast the European Central Bank will unveil additional stimulus this week. The 19-nation currency approached the lowest in seven months versus the dollar as investors are pricing in a 100 percent chance of a 10-basis-point cut in the ECB’s deposit rate on Dec. 3. A gauge of the dollar climbed to the highest since March as futures predict the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in December, expanding the divergence between the two central banks.  
• Europe Stocks Climb to Three-Month High on Stimulus Anticipation. European stocks pulled off a second monthly advance on bets the region’s central bank will increase stimulus at this week’s meeting. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied to a three-month high, taking its November gain to 2.7 percent.
• The Economic Loss From the Global Commodities Slump. (video)
• Oil Pares Monthly Decline Before OPEC Ministers Gather This Week. (video) Futures gained as much as 2.2 percent in New York, reducing November’s drop to about 8 percent. Iran expects no major decisions that would change OPEC’s output target when the group gathers Dec. 4 in Vienna, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said Saturday at a conference in Tehran. Speculators increased their bullish position on Brent to a two-week high through Nov. 24. Oil is set to average below $50 for a fourth month, the longest stretch since the global financial crisis, as a record supply glut showed no signs of ending amid a producers’ fight for market share. Iran has said it will announce plans during the Vienna meeting to expand output, a year after Saudi Arabia led an OPEC decision to keep pumping and drive out higher-cost shale rivals. "As the ministers arrive in Vienna the rhetoric will start to fly," John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund, said by phone. "The market is going to be headline driven and very volatile this week. The bulls are especially desperate and will try to bid up the market on any sign of a cutback."  
• This Recovery Has Fallen Behind The Recovery After The Great Depression. The not-so-great expansion. In April 2009 Economists Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O'Rourke first compared the collapse in industrial output following the start of the 2008 "Great Recession" to the one that followed the Great Depression beginning in 1929.At the time, the declines were running at a similar pace, sparking warnings that the world was headed into another great depression.
• Distressed Debt Ratio Highest Since 2009 on Crude Crash, S&P. (graph) Plummeting oil and gas prices pushed the percentage of junk bonds trading at distressed levels to the highest since the markets were recovering from the financial crisis, according to Standard & Poor’s. The ratings firm’s so-called distress ratio increased to 20.1 percent in November, up from 19.1 percent in October and the most since September 2009, when it hit 23.5 percent. The ratio is calculated by dividing the number of distressed securities by the total amount of speculative-grade debt outstanding. “The oil and gas sector accounted for 113 of the 361 issues in the distress ratio, because drops in oil prices affected profitability for oil and gas companies, where spreads have widened considerably, and had a spillover effect to the broader speculative-grade spectrum,” Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research Group, said in a report. The distress ratio, along with other economic, financial and credit conditions, indicates “growing pressure” that the number of defaults might rise, according to the report.
• Banks Supplant Energy in Destroying S&P 500 Growth Outlook. The two-quarter retreat in Standard & Poor’s 500 Index earnings is about to become a three-quarter swoon, and this time it isn’t just because of plunging energy prices. Bank profit estimates are falling at the fastest pace in four years, bringing the overall forecast for S&P 500 earnings in the fourth quarter to a decline of 5.6 percent, compared with a gain of 1.4 percent as recently as August. Financial institutions are exerting an ever-increasing drag on analyst projections: what had been expected to be a 16 percent surge in their October-to-December income has narrowed to less than 1 percent.
• Fed Poised to Relinquish Crisis Tools It Used to Bail Out AIG. The Federal Reserve plans to vote Monday on giving up the lending tools it used to rescue American International Group Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. during the financial crisis after U.S. lawmakers restricted the central bank’s power to prop up failing firms. Under the Fed’s revised authority, it would only be able to save firms in a broad-based scenario, meaning it must rescue at least five entities at the same time, according to a statement released by the central bank. The change is meant to prevent the Fed from bailing out a single company. The Fed is required to write rules that eliminate some of its sweeping emergency lending authority under the 2010 Dodd-Frank law.

Zero Hedge: 

• Sweden: "No Apartments, No Jobs, No Shopping Without A Gun".
• To JPM, This Is The Alarming Chart Suggesting The Next Recession "Is Just Around The Corner". (graph)
• More Energy Companies Accused Of Downplaying Climate Change.
• Morgan Stanley Throws In The Permabullish Towel, Says It Is "Feeling Worse, But Not Sure Can Explain It".
• The IMF Confirms Yuan Inclusion In SDR Basket At 10.92% Weight, Above JPY And GBP.
• Morgan Stanley To Cull 25% Of Fixed Income Jobs Within 2 Weeks As Revenues Plunge.
• Internal Bleeding, Cheap Tech, And Falling Angels. (graph)
• Russia Sends NATO A Clear Message By Arming Fighter Jets With First Air-To-Air Missles.
• Recession Looms As Dallas Fed Manufacturing Contracts 11th Month In A Row. (graph)
• 'Unpatriotic' Ford Agrees Union Deal To Offshore American Jobs And Hire Low-Paid Workers. 
• NAR Admits Oil Slump Finally Hits Housing Sales. (graph)
• Chicago PMI Plummets To 48.7, Below Lowest Estimate. (graph)
• Larry Lindsey Crushes Steve Liesman's Dreams, "The Foolish Fed's Bubble Policy Always Ends Badly".
• Milwaukee ISM Bounce Dies As Employment, New Orders Plunge. (graph)
• World's Largest Pension Fund Suffers $64 Billion Loss After Doubling Down On Stocks. (graph)
• BTFD "Is Coming To An End" JPM Warns, As It Lowers Equity Allocation Most In 6 Years. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• Putin's latest message to Turkey could 'spin any future incident beyond control.
• ISIS now has a 'colony' in an oil-rich Libyan city just 400 miles from Italy.
• Retail stocks are getting slammed.
• The commodities bloodbath of 2015 in one chart.

CNN:

• Paris terror attack suspect believed to be in Syria. (video) Paris attacks suspect Salah Abdeslam has escaped to Syria, according to a source close to the investigation and a counterterrorism source.