Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
Bloomberg:
- The Global Economic Cost of Terrorism Is Now at Its Highest Since 9/11. Nearly 10 times as many killed in attacks than 15 years ago. In
the wake of Friday's massacre in Paris, a new report says the world is
paying the highest price for terrorism since the 2001 attack on New
York's Twin Towers. In 2014, acts of terror cost the world $52.9 billion
— roughly the size of Bulgaria's entire annual gross domestic product —
compared with $51.51 billion in the aftermath of Sept. 11,
according to the latest annual Global Terrorism Index by the Institute
for Economics and Peace, which has been collecting data since 1997.
- `Devastating' Blow for Abe Seen in Japan Inc.'s Investment Cuts. (video) Japan Inc. is looking like it’s not holding up to its end of the Abenomics bargain. Since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office almost three years ago, he’s been championing yen-weakening policies that pushed corporate earnings to record highs in the hopes that companies will boost spending and workers’ paychecks. Yet the latest figures show falling business investments helped push Japan into its second recession under Abe and wage growth remains stagnant.
- Dollar Climbs to 7-Month Peak as Hedge Funds Boost Bullish Bets. The dollar climbed to a seven-month high as hedge funds increased wagers the currency will strengthen amid speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as soon as next month.Hedge funds and other large speculators boosted bets on dollar gains versus eight major currencies in the last three weeks, in the biggest jump since March 2013, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.
- Asia Stocks Follow U.S. and Europe Shares Higher as Yen Weakens. Asian stocks rose from an almost six-week low, following gains in U.S. and European shares, as a weakening yen boosted Japanese equities and concern eased from the attacks in Paris. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.6 percent to 131.31 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo after closing Monday at the lowest since Oct. 6.
- Oil Approaching $40 Deepens Investor Pessimism on Recovery. Hedge funds have turned more pessimistic on oil as prices flirted with $40 a barrel for the first time since August."The speculators keep trying to pick the bottom and keep getting burned," Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts, said by phone. Money managers’ short bets in West Texas Intermediate crude surged 21 percent in the week ended Nov. 10, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The net-long position dropped 16 percent.
- Copper Extends Retreat to Six-Year Low Amid Weak Chinese Demand. Copper extended its decline to the lowest level in more than six years on signs of weak demand in China, the biggest consumer, and as the dollar traded near the strongest level since at least 2004. The metal fell as much as 0.3 percent to $4,678 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange before trading at $4,695 by 9:47 a.m. in Singapore, while futures slumped in Shanghai. Codelco, the world’s largest producer, has cut the premium it will charge buyers in China next year by the most since the global financial crisis, a further sign that demand is slowing.
- Steel Is the Poster Child For Oversupplied Commodity Markets, and It's in Shambles. Output has far exceeded demand. The collapse in oil prices following the shale revolution has stolen the limelight for investors mulling the end of the commodities supercycle. But the real "poster child for problems in commodities markets is perhaps the global steel industry," according to Macquarie analysts led by Colin Hamilton, the firm's global head of commodities research. The front-month contract for U.S. hot-rolled coil steel futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange is down nearly 40 percent year-over-year:
- Here's a Sign the Treasury Market Is Ready for the Fed to Act. Treasury volatility tumbled to the lowest level this year, signaling there’s a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its December meeting and forgo the delays that marked its previous two sessions. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which measures price swings in U.S. debt, fell to 67.69 basis points on Monday, the least since Dec. 26. Central bank officials stressed last week that policy should be tightened gradually after interest rates are increased for the first time since 2006. New York Fed President William C. Dudley said the conditions for liftoff “could soon be satisfied.”
- NYC Prepares as If It's the Next Terror Target, Bratton Says. (video) New York City’s police department for the first time deployed a special counter-terrorism team of more than 500 officers in the aftermath of the attacks that shook Paris Friday night, Police Commissioner Bill Bratton said Monday. The department has about 1,500 officers -- out of 35,500 -- assigned to combat terrorism. The new, heavily-armed unit is intended to be a rapid-reaction force in the event of a terrorist attack.
- Billionaire Pickens Energy Fund Loses Half Its Value in Downturn. Billionaire investor T. Boone Pickens reversed course in the third quarter by slimming down his energy holdings as the worst oil market downturn in decades drags on longer than many expected. The value of energy holdings in his Dallas-based TBP Investments Management fund fell by more than half in the quarter to $35.6 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The fund exited stakes in 13 companies including smaller oilfield contractors Pioneer Energy Services Corp., C&J Energy Services Ltd. and Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. It also sold off smaller positions in exploration companies Apache Corp. and Occidental Petroleum Corp.
- Belgian Police Push Manhunt as French Authorities Crack Down on Extremists. Authorities also investigating whether Islamic State-linked suspect in previous plot was involved in Paris attack. Belgian police scoured a Brussels neighborhood for a suspect believed to have been critical to the attacks that rocked Paris and said they were holding two people in connection with the planning, as authorities in Paris announced raids of dozens of homes in a new crackdown on radical Islamists. Authorities in Belgium and France are also investigating whether another man—a Belgian named Abdelhamid Abaaoud, who is suspected of being the mastermind behind a foiled Belgian terrorist plot in January—was involved in Friday’s onslaught, officials familiar with the probe said.
- Pressure Grows for Global Effort Against Islamic State After Paris Attacks. France backs single alliance with U.S., Russia to fight extremists. World leaders pledged to seize on the Paris attacks to deepen their involvement in what looked Monday to be turning into more of a global campaign against the growing threat of Islamic State. President Barack Obama vowed to intensify all elements of his administration’s strategy against Islamic State, calling the terrorist attacks in Paris a “terrible and sickening setback” in the fight against extremism.
- Gambling the World Economy on Climate. The emission-cut pledges will cost $1 trillion a year and avert warming of less than one degree by 2100. The United Nations climate conference in Paris starting Nov. 30 will get under way when most minds in the French capital will still understandably be on the recent terror attacks. But for many of the 40,000 attendees, the goal is to ensure that climate change stays on the global economic agenda for the next 15 years. The Paris conference is the culmination of many such gatherings and is expected to...
- A Syrian Refugee Lesson for Liberals. By failing against jihad, Obama has produced an illiberal backlash. President Obama on Monday assailed the U.S. political backlash against resettling more Syrian refugees, especially Muslims, calling it un-American. Well, maybe he should have thought about that before he decided to do so little in Syria and let Islamic State build a vast terror sanctuary.
Fox News:
Financial Times:
- Obama plan for Syrian refugees scrambled by state opposition. (video) The Paris terror attacks may have put a clamp on President Obama's plans to resettle 10,000 Syrian refugees over the next year, as the number of governors saying they won't take them swells. At the same time, top congressional lawmakers are urging the administration to halt the plan. House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Michael McCaul called on Obama to "temporarily suspend the admission of all additional Syrian refugees" pending a "full review," according to a letter obtained by Fox News. The resistance at the state level is coalescing at a rapid clip. So far, governors in at least 16 states have moved to suspend or restrict the refugee resettlement, including Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Wisconsin. "Given the tragic attacks in Paris and the threats we have already seen, Texas cannot participate in any program that will result in Syrian refugees -- any one of whom could be connected to terrorism -- being resettled in Texas," Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said in a letter to Obama.
- Japan's Problems Will Not Be Solved By More QE, RBS Warns. (graph)
- "What Are The Markets Telling Us" - The Hedge Funds' Favorite Newsletter Explains. (graph)
- "Nothing Makes Sense Anymore" Traders Fear Debt Market Distortions Signal "Something Big Is Brewing". (graph)
- The Fed Will Raise Rates Only Insofar As They Are Irrelevant.
- Obama Says 10,000 "Carefully Vetted" Syrian Refugees Still Headed To The US.
- War Is Bullish: Stocks, Oil Surge Off Paris Panic Lows After Dismal Economic Data. (graph)
Business Insider:
- ISIS wanted to strike beyond its 'caliphate' long before the Paris attacks.
- Without buybacks, there is no earnings per share growth. (graph)
- Jim Chanos sent us 3 charts shooting down the hot new metric China bulls love.
- The world's most accurate Apple analysts think iPhone sales have peaked.
- Obamacare enrollees are reeling from higher deductibles.
Reuters:
- Enbridge cuts 5 percent of workforce in Canada and U.S. Canada's largest pipeline company Enbridge Inc cut 5 percent of its workforce on Monday, a company spokesman said, as low oil prices continued to drag on the North American oil and gas industry.
- Investment banks' revenue set to decline again in 2015 - survey. Revenue at the world's 10 largest investment banks is on course to decline again in 2015 by two percent to $148 billion compared to a year ago, although a strong showing in equities will limit the fall, a survey on Tuesday showed. It follows a weak third quarter, when revenue slipped by 8 percent, the survey by industry analytics firm Coalition showed.
- Urban Outfitters(URBN) falls on weak sales growth, restaurant deal. Apparel retailer Urban Outfitters Inc reported weaker-than-expected comparable sales, piling more pressure on its shares already strained by the surprise purchase of an Italian pizza chain earlier on Monday. Shares of the company fell as much as 10 percent after Urban Outfitters said it would buy the Vetri Family restaurant group, and fell another 10 percent in extended trading after the company reported weak third-quarter results.
- Emerging markets: Deeper into the red. Companies from Brazil to China are finding it harder to repay loans and raise fresh cash, hampering growth.
Telegraph:
- France swats aside EU budget rules in rearmament blitz. “The security pact takes precedence over the stability pact. France is at war,” said President Hollande.
Evening Recommendations
- None of note
- Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.5% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.5 -2.25 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 70.5 -1.0 basis point.
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.46 -.05%.
- S&P 500 futures +.11%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (DKS)/.46
- (HD)/1.32
- (JASO)/.24
- (KLIC)/.17
- (TJX)/.84
- (WMT)/.98
- (JACK)/.65
- (LZB)/.41
- (VIPS)/.12
8:30 am EST
- The CPI MoM for October is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.2% decline in September.
- The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for October is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in September.
- Industrial Production for October is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in September.
- Capacity Utilization for October is estimated at 77.5% versus 77.5% in September.
- Manufacturing Production for October is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in September.
- 3Q MBA Mortgage Foreclosures/Delinquencies.
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for November is estimated at 64.0 versus 64.0 in October.
- Net Long-Term TIC Flows for September.
- (BOFI) 4-for-1
- The Fed's Tarullo speaking, Fed's Powell speaking, UK retail sales report, German Zew Index, US weekly retail sales reports, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retailing conference, Stifel Healthcare conference, (MDR) analyst day, (RDN) investor day, (SYNA) analyst meeting and the (CAT) analyst day could also impact trading today.
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