Thursday, June 15, 2017

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Diminishing Healthcare/Tax Reform Hopes, Oil Decline, Commodity/Construction Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 10.91 +2.54%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.06 +.61%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.76 +2.65%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.18 -1.62%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 56.0 -37.0%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +13.41%
  • NYSE Arms 1.37 -11.35%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.85 +1.89%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 422.0 +3.22%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.75 +.26%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 6.94 -1.84%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.15 +2.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 194.30 +2.44%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 139.16 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.25 +1.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.07 -.64%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.0% unch.
  • Yield Curve 81.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.23/Metric Tonne +1.47%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.70 -4.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.50 -1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.0 +1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69 -3.0 basis points
  • 27.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 20 meeting, 29.3% chance at Nov. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +79 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -1 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tecj/biotech sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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