Thursday, February 22, 2018

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Oil Gain, Earnings Optimism, Energy/REIT Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.19 -4.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.10 -.57%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.55 +.94%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.15 -6.01%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 74.0 -37.82%
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 +5.77%
  • NYSE Arms .81 -62.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.64 +1.67%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 407.0 +9.04%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.67 +5.37%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.75 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.72 -.31%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 124.18 -.68%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.64 +.18%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.5 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 26.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.75 +3.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.59 +.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.64% unch.
  • Yield Curve 66.75 -.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 76.66 USD/Metric Tonne +.22%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.90 +1.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.0 -4.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.50 +.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -6 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +56 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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