Thursday, February 15, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less US/European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Tech/Telecom Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.57 +1.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.43 -.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.78 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.80 -2.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -5.49%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -22.41%
  • NYSE Arms .99 +112.17%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.05 -6.39%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 386.0 -4.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.04 -5.48%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.25 -.5 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.71 -3.42%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 122.69 -4.96%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.69 +.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 26.75 +2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.25 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 76.05 +.35%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.59% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 71.75 -2.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 76.35 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.20 -5.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 37.10 -1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.40 +1.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +76 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +309 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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