Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Mueller Probe Worries, Yen Strength, Technical Selling, Energy/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.17 +3.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.51 -.93%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.04 -.25%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.96 -.79%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 +14.52%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +8.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.17 -45.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.27 +.80%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 371.0 +1.45%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.85 -.84%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.75 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.13 -3.88%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 121.24 +.05%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.91 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.5 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 33.0 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -33.5 -2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.28 -.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.66% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 61.25 -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 77.38 USD/Metric Tonne +.48%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 32.90 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.40 -2.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.90 +.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -103 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -45 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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