Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less US/European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Metals & Mining/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.44 -22.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.77 +.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.78 +1.27%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.09 -8.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +39.71%
  • Total Put/Call 1.18 +21.65%
  • NYSE Arms .40 -63.48%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.46 -1.73%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 403.0 -.46%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.74 -1.42%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.75 -2.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.16 -3.83%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 129.32 -4.1%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.46 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.5 +2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 23.50 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.50 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.80 +.88%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.58% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 74.50 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 76.60 USD/Metric Tonne -.14%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.50 -2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 38.30 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.0 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 +5.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +311 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +117 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +87 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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