Monday, April 02, 2018

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Amazon Political Woes, Technical Selling, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.9 +24.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.62 -.57%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.28 +3.9%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.23 +11.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 n/a
  • Total Put/Call 1.25 +33.0%
  • NYSE Arms 2.53 +196.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.06 +3.86%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 454.0 +1.59%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.76 +.18%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 129.0 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.49 +1.66%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 143.1.0 +4.1%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148542 -.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 59.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.13 -.28%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.72% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 49.0 +1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.51%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.1 -3.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.10 -1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.0 -6.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.05 -1.0 basis point
  • 79.0% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 80.3% chance at August 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -323 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -166 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating n/a open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail/industrial/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging markets shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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