Monday, May 21, 2018

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Diminishing Trade War Tensions, Less Mueller Probe Angst, Oil Gain, Industrial/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.29 -.97%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.1 +.26%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.18 +.44%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.39 -4.31%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +24.24%
  • Total Put/Call .83 -.17%
  • NYSE Arms 1.16 -26.86%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.88 +.28%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 355.0 -1.02%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.77 +3.47%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.75 +21.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.49 -3.67%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 167.91 -1.79%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.51 +.21%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 23.25 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 43.0 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 -2.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.0 +.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.90% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 50.50 -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.45 USD/Metric Tonne +.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.30 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -81.40 +10.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.50 -.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at August 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at September 26 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +30  open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating n/a open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/industrial/retail/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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