Friday, May 04, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Oil Gain, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.97 -5.79%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.88 -.31%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.67 +.70%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.21 -1.74%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 +8.22%
  • Total Put/Call .98 -3.92%
  • NYSE Arms .56 -53.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.50 -1.17%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 398.0 -1.06%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.42 -.49%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 125.25 +4.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.57 +3.29%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 148.69 -4.46%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.22 -.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 53.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.64 +.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.83% unch.
  • Yield Curve 46.5 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 66.83 USD/Metric Tonne -.25%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.9 -3.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -96.60 -8.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.8 +.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at August 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at September 26 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +33  open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +74 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +36 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/industrial/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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