Thursday, May 17, 2018

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Trade War Tensions, Long-Term Rates, Emerging Market Debt Angst, Restaurant/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.07 -2.05%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.06 +.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.96 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.48 +3.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 +12.6%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -6.82%
  • NYSE Arms .96 +7.78%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.13 +.22%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 362.0 -1.54%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.57 +1.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 147.50 -3.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.87 -.19%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 162.97 +2.73%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.35 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 +2.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 41.25 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.41 -.43%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.90% unch.
  • Yield Curve 53.75 +3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 67.84 USD/Metric Tonne +.38%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.50 +1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -93.60 +1.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.90 +1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at August 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at September 26 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +97  open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +15 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/industrial/retail sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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