Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Regional Bank Contagion Worries, US Economic Data, Financial/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 +2.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.16%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.6 -1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.4 +.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 +1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.4 +1.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -8.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 +18.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 756.9 +1.01%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 377.4 -1.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 444.0 -11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.59 -.36% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 382.53 -9.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.33 -1.09%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 230.15 +.29%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.79 -.1%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 50.0 basis points +6.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 +2.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  152.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 679.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 92.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.84 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.35 USD/Metric Tonne -.37%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.4 euros/megawatt-hour +7.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.0 -5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.5 -3.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.2 -1.3 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.11 +.13:  Growth Rate +1.7% unch., P/E 18.2 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.29% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.42 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.02 +1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -57.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +1.71% -78.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.60% -13.0 basis points: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 56.9%(+10.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 47.3%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -43 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +146 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long