Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Declining Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Healthcare Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.0 +1.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.3 +2.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .40 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .02 unch.
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.7 +.6% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.0 +.6% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 59.7 +1.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.3 -2.4

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.2 +6.0

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 45.0 -2.4

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.3 -1.2
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(38 of 500 reporting) +49.9% -4.2 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 409.95 +.49:  Growth Rate +24.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.9 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.29% -5.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,089.68 +.73: Growth Rate +62.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.5 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.10 -11.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 33.25 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.2 -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 85.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.6%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.9% +.6%
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.6% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.09% -9.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.93 +1.0 basis point

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 63.6% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 43.5%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,470 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -70 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +32 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +203 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long