Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, More Dovish Fed Commentary, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.4 +.6% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.1 +.3% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .44 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .05 +4.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.2 +4.3% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.4 +3.3% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 61.0 -.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.1 -.2
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.3 +2.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.9 -3.0

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 75.5 +2.2

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.9 +9.8
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(15 of 500 reporting) +184.6% +170.0 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 404.73 +.22:  Growth Rate +23.3% unch., P/E 18.9 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.29% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,056.78 +1.34: Growth Rate +57.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.0 -.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.09 +6.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 45.25 basis points (2s/10s) +5.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.8 -1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 72.8 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 7.9% -.5 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.24% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.80 +13.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 63.2% (+5.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 46.9%(+13.9 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -436 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -144 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +3 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +185 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long