Stocks Higher into Final Hour on War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.5 -.8%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 64.9 -.6% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .41 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .06 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.8 -.7% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.0 -2.1% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 61.0 -1.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.1 +1.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.5 -.6

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.4 -4.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(78 of 500 reporting) +37.1% -7.1 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 411.43 +.21:  Growth Rate +25.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.8 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.35% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +602.9% -410.2 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,093.09 +.45: Growth Rate +62.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.2 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.0 +1.0 basis point
• US Yield Curve 31.75 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 174.5 +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 87.2 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.3% -.9%
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.5% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.12% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.02 +4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 76.5% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 44.6%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +110 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -4 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/energy/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
• Market Exposure: 75% net long