Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.3 n/a
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.7 +.3%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .41 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.01 n/a
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 71. +1.0%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 156.6 -.1%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 58.9 +.4%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.7 -1.5
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.8 -1.3
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.8 -2.7
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.9 +.5
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +144.0% -6.6 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 408.97 +.62: Growth Rate +24.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.1 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.37% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,087.71 +2.60: Growth Rate +62.0% +.4 percentage point, P/E 18.0 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.21 unch.
- US Yield Curve 44.5 basis points (2s/10s) n/a
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.5 +.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 84.4 euros/megawatt-hour +3.7%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 9.4% +.7%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.6% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.24% n/a
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.81 n/a
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 68.4% (-1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 44.6%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -570 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -127 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -18 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +99 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slight Higher: On gains in my energy sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% net long
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