Stocks Finish Higher on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Declining Eurozone Sovereign Debt Angst, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.8 -2.8%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.3 +2.8% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .37 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .17 -3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.7 -3.4% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 166.8 -4.0% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 61.4 -4.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 -.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.7 +.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.1 +7.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.4 -2.8

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.4 +1.8
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(161 of 500 reporting) +37.6% +.4 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 412.95 +.10:  Growth Rate +25.8% unch., P/E 18.7 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.39% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +499.8% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,095.86 +.15: Growth Rate +63.2% unch., P/E 16.9 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .86 +6.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 25.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.0 +1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 96.81 euros/megawatt-hour +.1%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 11.6% +.8%
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.4% -.1 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.0% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.64 -4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 78.0% (+5.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 52.4%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,170 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +80 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +19 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (QQQ) hedges, then added them back
• Market Exposure: 75% net long