Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Biotech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.2 -.6%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 65.4 +.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .42 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .08 -1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.4 +1.3% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 166.7 +1.3% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 61.7 +1.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.6 +.9

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.1 -2.5

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.4 -3.6

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.6 -1.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(60 of 500 reporting) +44.2% -3.2 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 411.22 +.44:  Growth Rate +25.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.8 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.33% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,092.64 +.39: Growth Rate +62.7% unch., P/E 17.2 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .99 +11.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 37.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.1 +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 86.8 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 11.2% +.4%
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.5% -10.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.11% -2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 -2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 73.7% (+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 45.1%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +96 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -114 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +13 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +221 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% net long