Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.0 -.9%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.4 +.1%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .35 -2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .10 -7.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.6 -1.5%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 167.0 +.3%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 61.5 +.2%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 84.2 -1.5
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.7 -.4
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.5 -.9
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.7 +1.3
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(201 of 500 reporting) +37.9% +.3 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 413.17 +.23: Growth Rate +25.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.7 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.39% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +499.8% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,096.46 +.60: Growth Rate +63.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 16.8 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 +6.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 32.75 basis points (2s/10s) +7.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.9 -.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 98.5 euros/megawatt-hour +2.6%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.9% -.7%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.3% -.1 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.03% +4.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.70 +6.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 82.6% (+4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 57.0%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +690 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -147 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +22 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +115 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/energy sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% net long
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